Understanding the film business / Awards

[jo]

The veteran movie press from the trade paper and other respected movie media are touched by the sense of history of filmmaking at Fox. Anne Thompson who now writes for Indiewire contributes this piece --

www.indiewire.com/2018/04/fox-farewell-cinemacon-2018-1201957696/

[jo]

Deadline shares the views from people like FOX's Stacey Snider on the Disney consolidation impact and the new trends developing in the filmmaking business --

deadline.com/2018/04/disney-fox-merger-stacey-snider-avatar-producer-jon-landau-cinemark-boss-cinemacon-1202376565/

Fox Film Boss Stacey Snider On Industry Consolidation Like Disney-Fox: “Just Buckle Up And Take The Ride” – CinemaCon

by Anthony D'Alessandro

April 25, 2018 4:04pm


So what about the Fox-Disney merger? It’s a prime question in these CinemaCon times that wasn’t broached during Disney’s presentation yesterday. Today during a CinemaCon panel, 20th Century Fox CEO and chairman Stacey Snider and Avatar producer Jon Landau could only say so much, but here’s what the former let on as to why consolidation is occurring in the film industry:


“As a 30-year lifelong studio executive, I can see the pressure that the studios have to not only create size and heft in the marketplace, but to also look at the cost of making theses global films and the cost of acquiring an over-the-top customer,” Snider said.

“When you account for revenues over windows, it’s not a surprise when you start to see that home entertainment levels out and TV distribution becomes a risk-benefit trade-off. Do we sell TV distribution rights?” she asked. “When you face window revenues tapering off, you have to create an on-demand opportunity; the cost of a movie, the cost of acquiring a new subscriber — you can see it when you do a P&L and you cross your fingers that the revenues will take care.”



Snider mentioned that a pic’s digital rights used to be included in a studio’s TV rights deal. Now the attitude is to monetize those streams and create opportunities for a business to build a customer base.
What will Disney do with those Fox assets? Again, mum from Snider and Landau, though the latter mentioned that the Burbank, CA studio doesn’t make films like Deadpool or Avatar or Fox Searchlight titles and therefore big Fox product fills a need.


What’s the Disney-Fox timeline like now?

Said Snider: “We all live with uncertainty of a business and that is an experience that changes; just buckle up and be professional and play our game. Honestly I don’t know what the timeline is; there was new news this morning for other bids for other assets. We’ve been through the transformations in our business and the doomsdayers. Just buckle up and take the ride.”

When Netflix was brought up by the panel’s moderator, Indiewire editor Anne Thompson, the panelists didn’t flinch. Snider said Fox made a conscientious decision to not acquire movies at festivals and compete with the deep pockets of streaming services and has opted to make movies in-house, i.e., Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Isle of Dogs and The Shape of Water.

Snider reminded that Netflix’s subscription model rose during the recession and the streaming service responded to the will of the people for a buffet-like approach to content at one price, rather than a per-title price point.
Still, Landau, Snider and Cinemark CEO Mark Zoradi agreed today that Netflix doesn’t duplicate the same experience as going to the theater.

“If a tree falls in the woods do you hear it?” said Snider regarding the resonance of a movie being distributed on the streaming platform.


“You can’t replace five weeks of word of mouth that you get in the theater,” agreed Thompson.

Said Landau regarding Netflix, “You can’t duplicate the tears or the laughter of going to the movies.”

And there's no fun singing along all by yourself

More seriously, will they lose some of the best creative and managerial minds from the FOX lot to other studios? Will the departure of one film content-provider encourage the medium-sized producing outfits like LIONSGATE or WORKING TITLE ( currently with a working partnership with Universal) to expand their operations. Will AMAZON widen its content-making assets to chase studio execs and talents to broaden not only its streaming service but also its retail portfolio ( digital release/BluRay/DVD/soundtrack albums/other collateral products like songsheets and related film merchandise)?


Jo

[jo]

Revised Rules for Nominations of Film Score and Best Original Song --

variety.com/2018/film/awards/oscars-new-shortlist-procedure-aims-to-shake-up-score-and-song-categories-1202798601/

[jo]

Variety offers insights as to what's happening to the film market ( based on the ongoing developments at the Cannes Film Festival film market) --


variety.com/2018/film/news/cannes-film-festival-market-netflix-1202800862/


Interesting excerpts ( although the full article is quite informative) --

“What it is now very hard to find in the independent world is a title that checks all the right boxes: Good director, good script, familiar faces or good actors, guaranteed U.S. distribution.”

Those types of sexy projects may be harder to come by, but this year’s Cannes isn’t lacking for big-budget extravaganzas. Lionsgate will offer up “The Kingkiller Chonicles,” a $120 million fantasy billed as the next “Hunger Games.” There’s also the World War II romantic action thriller “Midway,” and Laika’s new animated feature “Missing Link,” with a voice cast that includes Hugh Jackman. Both films are budgeted at roughly $100 million and will be sold by newbie venture AGC Studios.

“Big-budget action and family entertainment are the two genres the international marketplace is crying out for,” said AGC founder Stuart Ford.


These are the types of films that would have been backed by major studios a decade or so ago, but those players are now largely consumed with backing comic book movies and sequels to pre-existing franchises. It’s a void that indie players – financiers producers, sales agents and distributors – are hoping to fill.



“There is money out there prepared to take risk outside the studio environment,” said Alex Walton at Bloom, which has “Luce,” starring Naomi Watts.

“I think that sellers have caught up a little bit to what’s actually a theatrical proposition in today’s world, and what is the appropriate valuation,” observed FilmNation Ent.’s Glen Basner.


Then there’s China. The Middle Kingdom has long enticed Hollywood — its vast population has become a key source of box office revenue. It’s also increasingly a major source of equity investment. For instance, Chinese companies are footing the bill for “Midway.”


“Midway,” with its epic battles, is the kind of film that demands to be seen on the big screen. But buyers carp that there aren’t enough of those types of sweeping entertainments being offered up for sale.

“I haven’t seen many top, wide-release theatrical titles announced to date,” said STX president of international sales John Friedberg.

The truth is that some of the heat has gone out of the film business. Compared to just a decade ago, it is far harder just to bring a film onto the market.


For sales companies, financing movies is “more complicated, because the pre-sale model has shifted, putting more emphasis on equity and soft monies,” said David Garrett, at Mister Smith Ent., which is selling romancer “The Sunlit Night,” with Jenny Slate (“Obvious Child”).

Television continues to attract top talent and more lavish budgets. Few movies have tapped into the cultural zeitgeist in the way that water-cooler shows such as “Game of Thrones” or “Big Little Lies” have managed. Independent distributors say that with the possible exception of “La La Land” and “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” few films financed outside of the studio system have pushed the boundaries of the medium in revolutionary ways. That needs to change.


“What we’re all missing is a new creative approach to the independent film world,” said Constantin Film’s chief Martin Moszkowicz. “The only way we can compete with Hollywood’s studios is by making more innovative and fresher movies than the studios.”

[jo]

No word yet on any results, but MISSING LINK is also the subject of brokering discussions ( for overseas distribution) at the Cannes Film Market.


While animation likely comprises the bulk of "family entertainment films", there is also room for movies like THE GREATEST SHOWMAN, which struck many as a breath of fresh air

Interestingly, Hugh's choices of voiceover work for ANIMATION are also diverse -- a romantic singing penguin in HAPPY FEET, a posh rat brought down to earth ( below the earth ) amidst a worldwide sports mania in FLUSHED AWAY, a manly Easter Bunny who serves as another kid guardian in RISE OF THE GUARDIANS...and now an explorer/adventurer looking for the MISSING LINK!


Jo

[jo]

SONY, whose Film unit (SONY Pictures) has just secured the worldwide distribution rights for THE FRONT RUNNER, is going to invest more on content, going forward in the long run. It has recently acquired ($ 2 Billion deal) the stake of EMI in the vast music library which it co-owned.

www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/new-sony-ceo-kenichiro-yoshida-outlines-shift-content-1113823

Excerpts --

New Sony CEO Kenichiro Yoshida said the Japanese conglomerate would shift its focus more in the direction of content and other recurring revenue generators at the announcement of its three-year business plan at its Tokyo headquarters on Tuesday morning.

A similar report from Variety also highlights the outlook for the film business --

variety.com/2018/biz/asia/sony-forecasts-drop-midterm-profits-boost-pictures-division-1202818451/

Excerpts --

Unveiling his first midterm strategy for electronics giant Sony, new CEO Kenichiro Yoshida took a conservative view Tuesday of the company’s overall profit picture but said he expects the film division’s profits to rise by up to 62% in three years...
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At Sony Pictures Entertainment, the company will continue to pursue its strategy, implemented during Hirai’s tenure, of maximizing its library and other IP assets. One example cited was “”Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle,” the 2017 hit sequel to the 1995 action-adventure smash “Jumanji.”

A great pity that a studio like FOX chose to go in another direction -- it is selling its content assets rather than leveraging on its acknowledged leadership in producing content! It was more of a personal gain for the Murdochs than promoting further the rich legacy of the film studio ( and TV studio)!

You have to hand it to the Japanese for their longterm business outlook!

[jo]

It looks like the Fox-Disney deal is not yet a done deal ( excluding regulatory approval) as COMCAST is prepared to make another and an all-cash offer!

deadline.com/2018/05/comcast-fox-bid-analysis-international-clout-digital-disney-1202396742/


variety.com/2018/biz/news/comcast-outbid-disney-21st-century-fox-1202819572/

[jo]

FOX Chairman and CEO Stacey Snider gives a speech at CineEurope which pitches for movies with blockbuster potential which are not only about " caped crusaders". The example she gives is THE GREATEST SHOWMAN, as she talks to theater distributors about welcoming different entertainment fares if one does not want weekend audiences only.

variety.com/2018/film/news/fox-stacey-snider-hollywood-caped-crusader-movies-1202840288/

[jo]

The favorable decision on the Time/Warner deal pushes a likely bidding war for the assets of FOX!

deadline.com/2018/06/comcast-fox-wall-street-expects-bid-any-minute-now-1202409052/


More details on the decision to allow the merger of Time/Warner --

www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr-esq/at-t-time-warner-merger-gains-judges-approval-1119330

[jo]

Will Comcast outbid Disney and win the prized assets of FOX?


www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/comcast-eyes-fox-bid-at-t-time-warner-ruling-clears-path-1119626

[jo]

Comcast has just bid for 19% more than the Disney offer!


deadline.com/2018/06/comcast-launches-competing-bid-fox-tops-disneys-offer-1202409389/

Comcast Launches $65 Billion Bid For Fox, Topping Disney’s Offer

The acquisition will give access to various global entertainment platforms and a very rich library from prized FOX assets.


However, I hope that they are also going to do something to keep the creative talents and organizational strengths that will keep producing more filmmaking history in the future!

[jo]

Interestingly, Variety makes a more insightful analysis of the implications of the competing bids.

Btw, Comcast already owns UNIVERSAL STUDIOS... and that seems to be a better fit with the filmmaking history of FOX, than tieing up with Disney/MarvelStudios ?

If you have the patience to scroll through their filmmaking history ( or maybe just concentrate from the 1960's to the present/near future)

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Universal_Pictures_films


Jo

[jo]

In a memo to staff at Comcast, the complementarity with the FOX business is laid out. It looks like the support of both shareholders and staff are being sought out in what could be a big bidding war with Disney.


deadline.com/2018/06/nbcuniversal-ceo-steve-burke-memo-staff-fox-bid-we-are-right-home-fox-assets-1202410960/


If you or your family work for an organization that has ever been involved in a business merger/acquisition, generally the concerns of the staff are not usually given high priority especially when the process of acquisition is taking place. The communication lines to staff have to be very open because any business integration will always have an impact on staff.


Jo

[jo]

Fascinating reading -- when big business goes to war


Hollywood Reporter reports on the different viewpoints offered by bystanders given how the competition between Disney and Comcast is shaping up

www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/fox-bets-legacy-comcast-disney-1121607?utm_source=twitter


In the meantime, Fox owners ( including minority shareholders) must be grinning at the unfolding bidding war

[jo]

OMG!!!!!!! Disney has just upped its offer to $ 71.3 billion ( vs the Comcast offer of $ 65 billion)


www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/disney-boosts-fox-bid-713-billion-cash-stock-1120841

Including the assumption of debt, the value of the deal rises to $85.1 billion, trumping Comcast's recent offer of $65 billion in cash for the same entertainment assets.

Walt Disney said Wednesday that it has boosted its takeover deal agreement with 21st Century Fox to $71.3 billion in cash and stock, following Comcast’s $65 billion all-cash offer from June 13.

The Comcast offer was for the same entertainment assets that Walt Disney had in December agreed to acquire for $52.4 billion in stock.

The new Disney-Fox deal, unveiled by the conglomerates early Wednesday, is worth $38 per share in cash and stock, or $71.3 billion. Disney will also assume about $13.8 billion of Fox's net debt, which would boost the total transaction value to approximately $85.1 billion.

Will it end here


It would be nice if, whatever deal works out, Rupert Murdoch shares the manna also with the creatives (including the organizational support) that created the FOX assets -- I do not know how that can work out -- but they do deserve it for the value they have created for the FOX asset values!


Jo

[jo]

Per The Wall Street Journal ( a Murdoch subsidiary), the revised FOX-Disney Merger Agreement has been decided upon as superior to the Comcast offer.

www.wsj.com/articles/fox-disney-announce-new-deal-1529496937

Excerpts --

21st Century Fox, Disney Reach Sweetened Merger Agreement
Disney agrees to pay more and add a cash component; Fox calls pact superior to Comcast’s bid

By Keach Hagey

Updated June 20, 2018 8:32 a.m. ET

21st Century Fox and Walt Disney Co. announced a new merger agreement Wednesday that increases the value of their deal, adds a cash component and eclipses a rival offer from Comcast Corp.

Under the new deal, Disney agreed to acquire Fox’s entertainment assets for more than $70 billion, compared with the original deal price of $52.4 billion in stock and Comcast’s roughly $65 billion all-cash offer...

[jo]

Interesting insight from the rights representation perspective. Endeavor ( WME/IMG) CEO Ari Emmanuel shares some of his thoughts on what is happening to the entertainment and media business, with the potential FOX/Disney acquisition.

deadline.com/2018/06/ari-emanuel-bob-iger-comments-disney-endeavor-plans-1202414554/



Btw, the new corporate set-up at the agency, with ENDEAVOR as the parent holding company --

deadline.com/2017/10/endeavor-wme-img-parent-company-ari-emanuel-patrick-whitesell-1202184926/



Jo

[jo]

The AMPAS has invited a record number of new members. Scott Feinberg raises 3 key issues on the trend that is developing.

www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-questions-raised-by-new-academy-members-1123178

THR's awards columnist asks if the organization can still claim to be film-centric, why all Oscar winners aren't invited and how the explosion in the size of the membership will impact Oscar campaigning.

When I first saw the name of Audra McDonald, the first question that came to mind even before this article was published, was whether the AMPAS is now changing the rules to glorify filmmaking artistry... or just trying to be achieve social justice issues as primary consideration ( diversity and gender equality).

The article cites Audra and other names as those which seem to be questionable ( not because of talent issues but the nature of the work for which they are known for) --

It is true these folks have made films, too, and been very good in some — Silverman, for instance, in 2015's I Smile Back. But it is simply disingenuous to argue that their body of film work merits an invite to join this particular organization. (And yes, I know that other people with questionable qualifications slipped through the cracks in the past — a commonly cited example is Fraser Heston, Charlton's son — but why would anyone want to perpetuate that sort of thing?)

I would also argue that it's highly questionable for people with zero real film credits to be invited to join any branch of the Academy other than members-at-large, but that happened this year in several branches — the documentary branch, for instance, invited New York African Film Festival founder and chief Mahen Bonetti, Film Quarterly editor B. Ruby Rich and film festival curator turned Ford Foundation grant maker Chi-hui Yang, all distinguished individuals, but in no sense filmmakers.

The issue is that people not primarily focused on motion picture artistry may further push Oscar choices to even more questionable wins.

Why not rename the ACADEMY OF MOTION PICTURE ARTS AND SCIENCES to ACADEMY FOR SOCIAL JUSTICE


Jo

[jo]

Comcast has abandoned its bid for FOX assets paving the way for the acquisition by Disney -- as reported by Wall Street Journal

[jo]

Are there any movie stars left?

So asks Jeff Wells in this interesting feature --

hollywood-elsewhere.com/2018/07/how-many-actual-movie-stars-are-left/

Equally interesting are the responses in the Feedback Section, where most of the regular responses come from people who seem to be real film buffs ( sometimes annoying and snobbish... but often insightful )

Please scroll down for the responses.


Jo

[jo]

Interesting exchange on the controversial firing of the director of GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY and Scarlett Johansson's withdrawal from the LGBTQ movie due to social media pressure --

deadline.com/2018/07/scarlett-johansson-james-gunn-rub-and-tug-transgender-shaming-disney-banishment-guardians-of-the-galaxy-1202433349/

Also, some excellent points --

BART: To my mind your comments reflect the suffocating effects of the double tyranny at work in our pop culture. On one side we confront the impact of giant corporate cultures like Disney and the tech leviathans, which exercise their own form of tyranny (intended or unintended). Their power is absolute – witness the Gunn incident. On the other side we confront the tyranny of the social media, where reputations can be instantly incinerated without due process, or any other sort of process. And here’s the tension: Most of us go into the movies or TV or the media because we instinctively know we are not mainstream individuals with mainstream tastes and opinions. And then we find ourselves walled in by the constraints of the double tyranny. And we feel suffocated.

BART: You brought up Rub & Tug. With respect to Scarlett’s dilemma, I respect her decision but feel that, in her haste (everyone these days seems to act in haste) she failed to consider the ominous overtones. But here’s the point: stars have always had passion projects and have been willing to pay the price for doing them. Years ago liberal stars like Paul Newman and conservatives like John Wayne stuck out their necks and made ‘message’ pictures that brought them satisfaction, and massive disapprobation. They survived. Given the fact that most starring roles these days are wrapped in spandex, stars today will have to pay that price if they want to liberate their careers and get their passion projects made.

And they cannot expect the majors to endorse them or release them. The reality is that the future of the movie industry resides with the indies – entities often funded by billionaires who themselves have something to get off their chests. In 1937, eight studios released 403 pictures while in 2016 six majors released only 176. This means that 400 or so movies each year are being funded and/or released by indies. Call Me Your Name last year was a perfect example of a successful indie film based on a topic no major would touch. It grossed over almost $60 million worldwide and yielded a formidable profit for a few courageous investors, for gutsy producer Howard Rosenman and for Sony Pictures Classics. Pictures like this cost a lot less than the $30 million you cited. So, Scarlett, get back into the movie, drop your price and find the right indie funding source. And don’t consult the social media.

[jo]

Shareholders have approved the acquisition by Disney of FOX assets!

www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/disney-fox-shareholders-approve-713-billion-deal1128343


Will Disney continue the proud legacy of the FOX Studios? Or is this the advent of the Disneyfication of all new filmmaking efforts at Fox?




Jo

[jo]

Can the success of a movie trailer predict the eventual box office success of the film?

www.engadget.com/2018/07/29/fox-ai-predicts-movie-viewing-based-on-trailers/

Fox AI predicts a movie's audience based on its trailer
Get ready for an era where algorithms shape movie previews.

Jon Fingas, @jonfingas
23h ago in Personal Computing


Modern movie trailers are already cynical exercises in attention grabbing (such as the social media-friendly burst of imagery at the start of many clips), but they might be even more calculated in the future. Researchers at 20th Century Fox have produced a deep learning system that can predict who will be most likely to watch a movie based on its trailer. Thanks to training that linked hundreds of trailers to movie attendance records, the AI can draw a connection between visual elements in trailers (such as colors, faces, landscapes and lighting) and the performance of a film for certain demographics. A trailer with plenty of talking heads and warm colors may appeal to a different group than one with lots of bold colors and sweeping vistas.

Notably, the deep learning approach already appears to work in real world conditions. While Fox did use existing movies as a benchmark, it also had success anticipating the performance of future movies. Sure enough, the visual cues in a brand new movie trailer gave an idea as to what attendance would be like several months later.

There are flaws in this method. It doesn't capture temporal info (Fox uses an explosion after a car chase as an example), and it would ideally combine both the video and text descriptions to get a fuller sense of the story.

However, Fox isn't shy about the practical applications. The AI could help studios craft trailers they know will appeal to a movie's intended audience, whether they're casual moviegoers who stick to the blockbusters or aficionados who want something off the beaten path. You might well see trailers that play up specific imagery to increase the chances that you'll buy tickets. And that's important in the streaming era, where movie theaters have to compete for viewers who could easily stay home and watch something on Amazon or Netflix.

Maybe the predictive value is not yet truly established and the initial conclusions on the premature side?

Did FOX foresee correctly how the movie musical The Greatest Showman will perform at the box office?

FOX must have been actually very surprised with the box office performance of THE GREATEST SHOWMAN. Based on the 2 trailers where a fair of cynicism greeted them ( " Is this what Hugh Jackman gave up Wolverine for??"), there was no knowing how the movie will eventually end up at the box office. The massive publicity ( trailers, included) did not result in hoped-for opening weekend ( they were actually dismal!).

It was eventually the word-of-mouth...and the continuing word of mouth which lifted the movie musical to unexpected heights across all ages, gender, and borders. As Forbes.com likes to label it -- one of the leggiest performers at the box office ( think Titanic )! That can only be sustained by word of mouth-- not goodwill from the trailers! It also sustained a very long theatrical run ( 7 months!) which even passed the release date of the digital version ( end-March) and the home video disc versions ( April 10 for USA and early June for the UK) !

Jo

[jo]

A Eulogy for FOX : Death of a Hollywood Studio


www.hollywoodreporter.com/features/death-20th-century-fox-a-eulogy-a-hollywood-studio-1131094


I grieve, too!

[jo]

The FOX Studio milestones --

www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/a-look-at-83-years-20th-century-fox-1131133/item/eulogy-a-studio-2018-1131209