THE FRONT RUNNER : Awards Talk

[jo]

Maybe it is a bit early -- for one, no trailer has dropped to-date, but THE FRONT RUNNER is already in the conversation for the coming awards season.

From early predictions from PLAYLIST ( Gregory Ellwood) :


theplaylist.net/2019-best-actor-oscars-predictions-20180704/

For BEST ACTOR -- Hugh Jackman is considered among the top likely contenders ( first tier).

I have a feeling that Hugh's name is in the conversation not only because he is in a biopic whose theme could be considered very current at the time of the movie's release due to the upcoming election … as well as the current political and social climate that sensationalizes news that usually follows a political scandal of a sexual indiscretion nature. I also think that because his two most recent successes were outstanding accomplishments in two different genres ( LOGAN and THE GREATEST SHOWMAN) and maybe because there is also a lingering sense of lack of recognition for his roles in LES MISERABLES ( although he did get a nomination, for work which Russell Crowe described as having a great character arc and with a high degree of difficulty) and PRISONERS, of his more current body of work, that his name is being brought forward. And of course, given Hugh's ability to handle dramatic fare ( Les Miserables/Prisoners/Prestige/TheFountain/A SteadyRain) and some advance word from Jason Reitman of Hugh's very nuanced portrayal, there is much expectations that he will get recognition!


I also think that the AMPAS sometimes wants to recognize past outstanding body of work that has been ignored and finds a current notable work to give him recognition ( check out winners like Leo DiCaprio and Gary Oldman). And this could be a more farfetched assumption - but Hugh has led a franchise that revived in an outstanding manner a moribund film genre, which is now Hollywood's top money maker ( the superhero movie phenomenon) and that his work in LOGAN is the culmination of such a contribution to the industry.





theplaylist.net/2019-best-picture-oscars-predictions-20180704/


theplaylist.net/2019-best-director-oscars-predictions-20180704/

For BEST PICTURE and BEST DIRECTOR -- only secondary tier mentions for THE FRONT RUNNER and Jason Reitman ( 2 time nominee as Director and also nominee for Best Screenplay ) because the movie is largely unknown. Once the trailer drops and talk among the movie press becomes more current, these two categories may be upgraded to leading contender tier.




theplaylist.net/2019-best-supporting-actress-oscars-predictions-20180704/


For BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS -- Vera Farmiga is mentioned in the first tier possibilities.


Hope the trend continues to strengthen as we know more of the movie and as the movie is eventually released.


Jo

[jo]

Lifting this from the original thread -- another significant predictor site ( Erik Anderson) :

Jun 23, 2018 17:23:33 GMT -5 jo said:

Without even a first trailer/teaser, predictor sites are beginning to take notice of THE FRONT RUNNER.

Purely on the basis of the subject theme and its "sweet spot" release date, the creatives, the strong acting names.


From Erik Anderson's AWARDSWATCH site --



*Best Actor ( Hugh in the top ten choices, as of June) :

awardswatch.com/2018/06/19/2019-oscar-predictions-best-actor-june-ethan-hawke-joins-the-race/



*Best Picture

awardswatch.com/2018/06/18/2019-oscar-predictions-best-picture-june-blackkklansman-back-on-top-the-favourite-moves-up/



*Best Adapted Screenplay

awardswatch.com/2018/06/22/2019-oscar-predictions-adapted-and-original-screenplay-june-the-front-runner-peterloo-rise/



*Best Director ( second-level)

awardswatch.com/2018/06/18/2019-oscar-predictions-best-director-june-spike-lee-rebounds-bradley-coopers-star-rises/


*Best Supporting Actress

awardswatch.com/2018/06/21/2019-oscar-predictions-supporting-actress-june-the-return-of-the-emma-stone-age/


*Best Supporting Actor

awardswatch.com/2018/06/20/2019-oscar-predictions-supporting-actor-june-sam-elliott-adam-driver-up-j-k-simmons-mahershala-ali-debut/


Also, the pickup by a major studio ( SONY) of the worldwide distribution rights has likwly put the movie in the spotlight as well, presumably because of the creative product itself( passing artistic standards from a big studio) and the potential promotional support.

[jo]

What a coincidence - XMEN, the first movie, reinvented the comicbook/superhero film genre. On the other hand, even if LA LA LAND was an AMPAS darling, it is not generally conceded that it really revived the audience's interest in movie musicals. That seems to have been accorded by the public to THE GREATEST SHOWMAN! Now many people, across all ages, gender, and borders swear by SHOWMAN


Besides, have you ever seen covers in any form of CITY OF STARS

No offense meant, Benj and Justin

[jo]

Veteran movie press member Anne Thompson ( Indiewire) thinks THE FRONT RUNNER may have a chance for an Oscar nod for ADAPTED SCREENPLAY, albeit with long shot chances only --

www.indiewire.com/2018/07/2019-oscars-best-adapted-screenplay-predictions-1201982083/

Director Jason Reitman helped author Matt Bai adapted his book about scandal-tainted presidential candidate Gary Hart, “The Front Runner” (November 7, Sony), starring Hugh Jackman.

Jason Reitman has won 4 Oscar nods in the past -- 1 for Best Picture, 2 for directing, and 1 for screenplay.

[jo]

Some predictors are rating THE FRONT RUNNER as having good potential for Best Picture honors, given the reputations of Jason Reitman and Hugh Jackman.

www.hollywoodnews.com/2018/07/27/taking-a-look-at-potential-best-picture-contenders/

6. The Front Runner – Jason Reitman goes political with this look at Gary Hart and how coverage of politicians in the media changed. I’ve been much more bullish on this one than most, so it could be an outlier, but the combination of Reitman and star Hugh Jackman has a lot to like about it. Sit tight, as once this one plays at a few festivals, we’ll know if it’s a true contender or not…

[jo]

The Hollywood Reporter is looking at the fall festivals as harbingers of OSCAR candidates. THE FRONT RUNNER is expected at Telluride and has been announced for Toronto.

www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/how-fall-film-fests-will-shape-awards-season-1129653

[jo]

Publicity blitz for Oscar bait movies is starting --

www.usatoday.com/story/life/movies/2018/08/02/oscar-watch-11-movies-might-get-awards-love-2019/883313002/

Excerpts --

Must-see performances

This season brings plenty of A-list stars taking big swings. Matthew McConaughey plays the father of a police informant-turned-incarcerated drug dealer in the crime drama "White Boy Rick" (Sept. 14), Melissa McCarthy shows off dramatic chops in "Can You Ever Forgive Me?" (Oct. 19) as struggling author-turned-celebrity forger Lee Israel, while Hugh Jackman pivots from singing in "The Greatest Showman" to playing fallen presidential candidate Gary Hart in Jason Reitman's political biopic "The Front Runner" (in select theaters Nov. 7).

Hopefully, the first trailer will be dropping soon!

[jo]

[jo]

[jo]

[jo]

The fall film festivals are generally viewed by the film community as the start of the awards season. The movie press also starts the speculation ball rolling as movies are screened in either Telluride, Venice or Toronto!


This is being reposted from the general THE FRONT RUNNER thread --

Aug 16, 2018 8:39:40 GMT -5 jo said:

Jeff Wells of HOLLYWOOD ELSEWHERE further classifies the 34 movies into 2 categories --

Yes to Some, Unsure About Others


An Indiewire piece by Zack Sharf has listed 34 movies “you need to keep an eye on during fall film festival season,” blah blah. Hollywood Elsewhere knows, believes or strongly suspects that 18 of these are actual hotties, and that 16 are interesting possibilities that require a “wait and see” attitude for now.


Good To Go: Alfonso Cuaron‘s Roma, Damien Chazelle’s First Man, Pawel Pawlikowski‘s Cold War, Lee Chang-dong’s Burning, Paul Greengrass‘s 22 July, Bradley Cooper’s A Star Is Born, Luca Guadagnino’s Suspiria, Marielle Heller’s Can You Ever Forgive Me, Nadine Labaki‘s Capernaum, Julian Schnabel‘s At Eternity’s Gate, Asghar Farhadi’s Everybody Knows (minor Farhadi but it’s still Farhadi), Yorgos Lanthimos‘ The Favourite, Jason Reitman‘s The Front Runner, Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck’s No Known Author, David Lowery‘s The Old Man and the Gun, Orson Welles‘ The Other Side of the Wind, Hirokazu Kore-eda’s Shoplifters and Jonah Hill‘s Mid90s (18).


Hedging bets, not entirely sure, hopeful but who knows?, etc: Steve McQueen’s Widows, Joel and Ethan Coen‘s The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel Edgerton‘s Boy Erased, Wash Westmoreland’‘s Collette, Barry Jenkins‘ If Beale Street Could Talk, Felix Van Groeningen‘s Beautiful Boy, Xavier Dolan‘s Death and Life of John F. Donovan, Denys Arcand‘s The Fall of the American Empire, George Tillman Jr.’s The Hate U Give, Mike Leigh‘s Peterloo, Jacques Audiard’s The Sisters Brothers, László Nemes’ Sunset, Brady Corbet’s Vox Lux, Yann Demange’s White Boy Rick, Paul Dano‘s Wildlife (16).


August 15, 2018 6:03 pm
by Jeffrey Wells

[jo]

whatculture.com/film/5-oscar-contenders-you-might-not-have-heard-of-but-should-pay-attention-to

5 Oscar Contenders You Might Not Have Heard Of (But Should Pay Attention To)

Sneaking their way towards those little gold statues.


As the Summer draws to an end, the conversation among cinephiles is shifting towards predicting the outcome of the fall movie season. Film festivals the world over have begun announcing their line-ups, stoking the flames of awards speculation.
Films such as Bradley Cooper's A Star is Born, Steve McQueen's Widows, and Damien Chazelle's First Man have already begun building awards buzz, releasing trailers and showing test screenings to the industry. As a result of this early buzz, audiences already have something to chew on with these films, thus pushing them further in the awards conversation.
Sometimes, however, a film comes out of seemingly nowhere and emerges as a late favorite among awards pundits. This year looks to be a highly competitive year what with new releases from high profile directors and A-list stars taking on meaty roles.
Though the majority of these films have gained some mainstream exposure through their marketing campaigns beginning early-on, here are some with massive awards potential that are just waiting to gear up their campaign.


5. The Front Runner

Jason Reitman enjoyed great success with The Academy in 2007 and 2009 for his films, Juno and Up in the Air, respectively. Both were met with critical acclaim and were nominated for a multitude of awards, even winning some. However, Reitman’s career slumped with the tepid responses to both Labor Day and Men, Women, and Children. Neither film received any recognition from The Academy nor did they receive much positive buzz from audiences and critics alike.
2018 has been better to Reitman thus far, what with the release of his latest film Tully yielding strong reviews praising the script by Diablo Cody, the performances of Charlize Theron and Mackenzie Davis, and Reitman’s direction. His upcoming film, The Front Runner, follows the true story of the derailment of Senator Gary Hart’s 1988 Presidential campaign as a result of a love affair.

With a strong cast including Hugh Jackman (playing Hart), Vera Farmiga, and JK Simmons and script written by Reitman himself, along with journalist Matt Bai and American policy strategist Jay Carson, expect a powerfully performed and smartly written biopic. The relevance of a film dealing with political scandal during a Presidency full of them should undoubtedly strike a nerve with audiences and critics alike.

The Front Runner will premiere at the Toronto International Film Festival in September and will be released by Columbia Pictures on November 7.

[jo]

Hollywood News puts Hugh Jackman as top contender for BEST ACTOR --

www.hollywoodnews.com/2018/08/24/taking-a-look-at-potential-best-actor-contenders/

Onward and upward! After a slight delay, we’re back on track with this series. As you all know so well from years past, in terms of this grouping of articles, it’s one thing to read early Academy Award predictions at this point in the year in order to see what folks like myself think will happen six or so months from now, but it’s another thing entirely to actually know something about what will be in contention. To help out in that regard, I’m once again running down some of the major contenders in each Oscar category in order to prep you all for the season to come. Basically, the format will have me saying a few words about what/who I feel are the top tier contenders right now in said categories, along with a longer list afterwards of many of the other hopefuls that the Academy might take a shine to. Consider this a sort of before the awards season cheat sheet to have in your back pocket. It has got to be old hat to at least some of you by now, I’m sure, but hey…

Today I’m continuing with another of the bigger ones that’s out there for us…the Best Actor category.


1. Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner) – Best Actor seems wide open right now. If so, why not the hugely likable Jackman, who could be seen as due? Playing infamous Senator Gary Hart in The Front Runner, this could be his vehicle. Especially if this is a comeback for Jason Reitman, Jackman could really be a force this year. It may be a hunch, but for the moment, he’s in the pole position for me.


2. Ryan Gosling (First Man) – Gosling may not quite be seen as due for an Oscar, but he’s close. Teaming back up with Damien Chazelle, Gosling plays Neil Armstrong in First Man. It seems like a very Academy friendly role, so there’s no way you can not have him high up on any short list. Best Actor may be his for the taking if this one has got the goods. Stay tuned there…

3. Christian Bale (Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic) – It may be hard to see Bale winning for this role, but a nomination could certainly be in the cards. He found much acclaim with Adam McKay the last time around, so this new collaboration, much like Gosling above, has lots of potential. First though, this one, whether it ends up called Backseat or not, has to make it to the finish line.

4. Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun) – If there’s a safe win to try and predict right now, it could be Redford getting the statue as he retires from acting. Voters might not go that route, but he’ll definitely be in play. If nostalgia/a way of saying thank you comes into play, Redford might see The Old Man and the Gun finally win him the Oscar for Actor.

5. Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate) – An intriguing X factor right now is Dafoe. He came up short in Best Supporting Actor last year, but here he’s playing Vincent Van Gogh in At Eternity’s Gate. You could consider him overdue for a win at this point too. Plus, if that role isn’t baity as all hell, what is?

6. Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) – Depending on how the movie is, Malek may be a really big threat here. Bohemian Rhapsody might be a mess, but Freddie Mercury is an iconic role. If Malek truly aced the part like it seems he has, he could overcome that. His candidacy will certainly be one to watch as the season progresses…

7. Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) – A lot will ride on how much the Academy falls in love with what Cooper has done here. Whether to not he gets in for Director with A Star is Born, he’s also a major threat in Actor. Could it be overkill though? Maybe, but Cooper is a beloved figure for voters at this point. As such, there’s no reason not to have him right near the top five.

8. Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy or Welcome to Marwen) – Carell has two very baity roles this year. He may end up going Supporting for Beautiful Boy, but for now, consider him Lead for that, while he’s clearly the star of Welcome to Marwen. The former seems more likely to be a player than the latter, but it could take votes away. This is another story to follow along as the season continues…

9. Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased) – If a few veterans fall off, one has to assume Hedges will be right there for another nomination. Few players this year have a better character to sink their teeth into than he does with Boy Erased. As long as he doesn’t fall through the cracks, this could be a big deal. If nothing else, Hedges has a great chance to crack the Best Actor lineup!

10. John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman) – Here’s where there starts to be a ton of possibilities. Washington could benefit from overall love for his film, but Chris Pine for Outlaw King may be right around this level as well. Time will tell. Right now though, Washington has the placement, since BlacKkKlansman is the biggest title among second tie hopefuls.

Check out the link for the rest of the contender predictions.


This is why the much awaited first reactions for me will be how film buffs and the movie press reacts to THE FRONT RUNNER when it premieres presumably at TELLURIDE.


Jo

[jo]

1. Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner) – Best Actor seems wide open right now. If so, why not the hugely likable Jackman, who could be seen as due?

Coincidentally, I have also held the view that Hugh Jackman is due! For an Oscar!

That narrative is one of the most compelling with the Oscars! Look at last year's Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)...previously for Leo DeCaprio ( Revenant), Christian Bale (supporting role in The Fighter),etc...where their current performance then also evoked how they have performed in previous strong roles.

In Hugh's case, he gave outstanding portrayals in Les Miserables ( Oscar nod), Prisoners, Logan ( Oscar nod for adapted screenplay), maybe for The Prestige and even The Fountain... and even Greatest Showman has the movie press engaged because of its Cinderella success. The LOGAN portrayal was a chance by the AMPAS to reward the work of an actor who consistently portrayed a favorite movie and literary character for almost 2 decades. His portrayals became stronger and stronger and LOGAN was his valedictory and most important portrayal of the character. So, there is a good narrative for the case of Hugh Jackman for Best Actor consideration!

Even more compelling than his previous portrayals is the dawning perpective in Hollywood that HUGH JACKMAN is arguably the most versatile actor around! Put him in any genre ( action/drama/musicals/rom-com/sci-fi) and it works!


Hugh's portrayal in THE FRONT RUNNER must be engaging and compelling as it may bring a different perspective of Sen Gary Hart, compared to how Hart has always been referred to in the media. Jason Reitman has characterized Hugh's portrayal of Gary Hart as " nuanced", which suggests a layered characterization, rather than a focused singular look at Hart. And if things go well and the movie itself is cited for Jason Reitman's strong comeback movie direction and for its overall quality as a Best Picture contender, that reinforces Hugh Jackman's chances for award consideration.


The conversation for Best Actor must be a continuing advocacy for an award for Hugh. The movie press is one major factor which can constantly remind the voters of his acting accomplishment. The studio ( SONY) promotion must continue to promote his performance for award consideration. And maybe even his talent agency ( the powerful WME-IMG) co-headed by his longtime agent Patrick Whitesell, can help in the promoting Hugh's Oscar chances. Hugh himself must engage in some of the continuing liaising with the movie press and the awards community. His presence at Telluride and Toronto would be the right start for the campaign for Best Actor.


Jo

[jo]

I forgot - he can also do the WESTERN genre - " Australia" was influenced by the western genre to some extent. Of course we know that the SHANE movie was a major inspiration for LOGAN.

And can we say he had a brief fling with comedy -- in a featured role in BUTTER?
Remember how he pronounced "conscience" ( sounds like "science" )

What about Van Helsing -- can that classify as a period horror movie

Jo

[jo]

www.screendaily.com/features/oscars-2019-countdown-who-are-early-contenders/5131981.article

Oscars 2019 countdown: who are the early contenders?
By Jeremy Kay25 August 2018

It looks set to be an awards season like no other, with prestige studio titles up against arthouse curios — and the Oscars’ baffling new popular film category.

Heavyweight contenders

‘First Man’
Among the anticipated early runners are Universal’s Venice opener First Man from Damien Chazelle, which sees the youngest-ever winner of the best directing Oscar for La La Land return to the fray. The studio also has US rights on Participant Media’s Toronto premiere Green Book from Peter Farrelly, a race drama starring Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali.
Annapurna has If Beale Street Could Talk, another Toronto world premiere that marks Barry Jenkins’ follow-up to 2017 best picture Oscar winner Moonlight. Yorgos Lanthimos’s Venice world premiere and New York Film Festival opener The Favourite, starring Olivia Colman, Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone, is with Fox Searchlight.

Searchlight is the reigning awards season champions, whose best picture and directing Oscars for Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape Of Water could not have come at a better time. If the title of Lanthimos’s reportedly Kubrickian period drama proves prescient, Disney chairman and CEO Bob Iger could be purring contentedly about the acquisition of the 21st Century Fox entertainment assets for another year of earnings calls, even if an R rating might preclude The Favourite from playing on Disney’s upcoming streaming service.

Early — unreliable — word from those working on Warner Bros’ A Star Is Born is positive about Bradley Cooper’s directorial debut and Venice world premiere. Cooper and Lady Gaga (in her first major film role) sing live, and the film could make a lot of noise. Friends of Sony are similarly talking up Jason Reitman’s The Front Runner starring Hugh Jackman as flawed 1988 presidential candidate Gary Hart.

Several strategists agree the influx of new Academy members could influence voting patterns. “This is the year for the focus to be back on diversity with the new Academy members,” says one strategist, who notes Black Panther “has something to say and there’s a rooting factor for it”.

[jo]

Vanity Fair speculates on what and who are in the conversation, awards-wise, as the season swings into festival mode ( the harbinger of awards!) --

www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2018/08/the-28-most-intriguing-films-of-the-fall-festival-season

On August 29, the 75th Venice Film Festival begins, kicking off a whirlwind movie mini-season. Two days later, the Telluride Film Festival in Colorado will start its quick, but significant, Labor Day weekend run—and then on September 6, the massive Toronto International Film Festival will groan into motion.

Over the next two weeks, the 2018 Oscar season will snap clearer into focus, dreams born and hopes dashed. The field is pretty wide open at this point; there are a few winter and spring holdovers still in play, but otherwise, it’s a landscape waiting to be claimed. What fall festival films might edge their way to the front of the pack? Let’s take a look.

Elsewhere, Hugh Jackman seeks to capitalize on a fantastic 2017 (both Logan and The Greatest Showman were Oscar-nominated smash hits) with a turn as disgraced politician Gary Hart in Jason Reitman’s new political comedy, The Front Runner. That title could prove entirely on the nose—or, the story of Hart could reflect an Oscar arc (without the affair, we’d think) in which Hugh’s hopes are dashed once more.

As Jackman launches that campaign in Telluride (we think), Robert Redford ends his acting career in a different part of the Rocky Mountains than he’s typically used to...

Please check out the rest of the article from the link.

Re the Hugh mention -- it looks like his extraordinary success with LOGAN and THE GREATEST SHOWMAN in 2017 ( and who can quarrel with success ?!!) is going to be part of the narrative on why Hugh Jackman should be one of the frontrunners . The other seeming part of the narrative is some speculation from other Oscar watchers that Hugh Jackman may be "due" for an award ( after Les Miserables/Prisoners/The Prestige, and maybe The Fountain)!

Of course, the most important selling point would be his own portrayal of the Senator from Colorado! As we have yet to see a trailer, it is literally an issue of waiting with bated breath … It may also be deemed as helping his chances if the film itself becomes a major part of the national conversation because of its relevance to the current political and cultural scene, albeit the saga happened some 30 years ago...and the coming mid-term elections!


Jo

[jo]

[jo]

[jo]

Awards Today
‏@awardstoday
20m
20 minutes ago


More
Prime reazioni tiepide dal Telluride Film Festival per The Front Runner di Jason Reitman, eppure Hugh Jackman potrebbe sorprendere ai prossimi Oscar con una seconda candidatura alla statuetta:

Translated from Italian by
Microsoft
First lukewarm reactions from the Telluride Film Festival for Jason Reitman's The Front Runner, yet Hugh Jackman might surprise the next Oscar with a second nomination for the statuette: www.awardstoday.it/2018/09/telluride-hugh-jackman-e-il-favorito.html?spref=fb …

[jo]

Kris Tapley of VARIETY cites Hugh and Nicole as among the acting leads that have drawn attention for their potential Oscar acting honors --

variety.com/2018/film/awards/oscars-from-hugh-jackman-to-nicole-kidman-lead-acting-races-take-shape-in-telluride-1202924624/

Oscars: From Hugh Jackman to Nicole Kidman, Lead Acting Races Take Shape in Telluride
By Kristopher Tapley

Kristopher Tapley
Awards Editor
@kristapley


As the 45th annual Telluride Film Festival begins to wind down, the landscape of lead acting Oscar contenders is beginning to materialize in the early days of the film awards season.

On the actress side, Nicole Kidman is turning a lot of heads with her de-glammed performance in Karyn Kusama’s uneven noir “Destroyer.” The film has been a bit divisive, but most agree that the 51-year-old Oscar winner delivers in a role completely unlike anything she’s ever tackled. It’s a true antiheroine, though, a character that could put some viewers off. But it’s thrilling to see Kidman go to such a bold and dangerous place at this stage in her career.

Fox Searchlight has at least a pair of possibilities, maybe a third if the reigning best-picture champ opts to widen the net for “The Favourite.” Yorgos Lanthimos’ outrageous period-piece comedy has critics going gaga (though that could fade somewhat if it becomes a love-it/hate-it film in the season). The performances from Olivia Colman, Emma Stone (receiving a tribute here at the fest) and Rachel Weisz are outstanding, but at the moment it appears Colman’s uproarious depiction of Queen Anne is the leading contender. She’s been rather universally declared the stand-out, but like her two co-stars, it’s a role that could be perceived as supporting.

If either of the other two ladies gets the upgrade, it would be Stone as Abigail Masham, one of the queen’s intimate companions. The 29-year-old knows how to grab the spotlight when she’s on camera, and indeed, that’s what the film is about in some ways. Searchlight is leaving things open for the moment to see how these performances continue to land with audiences at the festivals, but if I were to wager an early bet, I’d look for Colman to take center stage.

Also from Searchlight is “Can You Ever Forgive Me?,” with Melissa McCarthy as author Lee Israel. Israel, who was struggling for work in the early ‘90s, found herself the most unlikely of criminals when she launched a campaign of forging (and stealing) intimate letters from famed writers like Dorothy Parker and Lillian Hellman, then selling them at top dollar. Marielle Heller has made a charming film that expertly balances drama and comedy, and McCarthy delivers her best performance to date as the scorned and conflicted Israel. (Watch for Richard E. Grant in the supporting actor race as a rowdy friend and confidante.)

Also worth mentioning is a pair of performances in foreign-film players: first-timer Yalitza Aparicio in Alfonso Cuarón’s “Roma” and Joanna Kulig in Pawel Pawlikowski’s “Cold War.”

In the lead actor arena, Robert Redford highlights an assortment of star players. His swan-song work in David Lowery’s “The Old Man & the Gun” could contend if that into-the-sunset narrative really takes hold. It’s not that the performance really stands-out in his filmography — after all, it’s built on the charm and charisma of so many of his other turns throughout the years — but it taps the nostalgia beautifully, and moreover, his chemistry with Sissy Spacek is too delightful to resist.

In Damien Chazelle’s “First Man,” Ryan Gosling tackles the role of astronaut Neil Armstrong with a kind of stoic ease. It’s a bit more passive than the stuff that usually pops for Academy voters, but it’s no less compelling. There are no “Oscar clip” moments, but so much drive and grief and pain is happening beneath the surface. Co-star Claire Foy brings the electricity, though, and could be a better bet in supporting actress.


Finally, director Jason Reitman wrangles with a number of zeitgeist-y themes in “The Front Runner,” about politician Gary Hart’s failed campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination of 1988. Hugh Jackman nails the role and all its naïveté as Hart struggles under the spotlight of a press obsessed with his private dalliances.


Other performances of note include Victor Polster in Lukas Dhont’s transgender portrait “Girl,” Lukas Hedges in Joel Edgerton’s gay conversion therapy drama “Boy Erased” and even the late John Huston in Orson Welles’ finally-completed “The Other Side of the Wind,” among others.

These and more join a snowballing competition that will continue to roll through the fall. Who will last year’s victors Gary Oldman and Frances McDormand end up presenting Oscars in roughly six months? Time will tell.

The Oscar dates ( submission of applications for nominations, as have the announcement of the nominations and the actual Oscar ceremonies) have all been pushed forward. I think submission date is now November 15, 2018 for Best Picture and Acting and other honors -- so it makes sense that the festivals are being used to open the long award season campaign!

www.oscars.org/sites/oscars/files/91aa_rules.pdf


Jo

[jo]

www.hollywoodnews.com/2018/09/03/trailer-for-the-front-runner-and-buzz-from-telluride-suggest-another-oscar-player-for-jason-reitman/

Between the Trailer and the festival buzz, this flick looks to have a ton of potential. Jackman in particular has gotten the best word of mouth out of screenings, though Farmiga and Simmons have been praised as well. There have been some detractors, but a number of folks have compared Reitman’s work here to that of Robert Altman, and that’s high praise. Plus, the Trailer is dynamite. If you love a juicy political tale, this looks to really have the goods. All told, it suggests something that the Academy could be interested in. So, why don’t we move on to that part of the equation for the film? Tis the season, after all…

[jo]

Anne Thompson of Indiewire assesses which movies are likely Oscar contenders and which can get other nominations. She divides the group into TOP OSCAR DOGS and CROWD PLEASERS. The Front Runner is classified among the CROWD PLEASERS.


www.indiewire.com/2018/09/venice-telluride-oscar-race-toronto-first-man-roma-the-favourite-1202000024/

Excerpts --

Telluride Hits ‘First Man,’ ‘Roma,’ and ‘The Favourite’ Lead the Oscar Race as Toronto Beckons
A total of 10 films rose to the top after they screened at 8,750 feet. Keep an eye on "Can You Ever Forgive Me?" and "Free Solo."

Anne Thompson
3 hours ago
@akstanwyck

CROWD PLEASERS


Hugh Jackman and Jason Reitman at Telluride

“The Front Runner” (November 7, Sony): Set amid the ferment heading into the 1988 presidential election, Telluride vet Jason Reitman’s sprawling “The Front Runner” stars Hugh Jackman as Colorado Senator Gary Hart, the charismatic and brainy policy wonk who fiercely protected his privacy and his beloved wife, Lee (Vera Farmiga), to whom he is still married after 32 years. Hart was the frontrunner in the Democratic race for president, until the Miami Herald reported on his affair with Donna Rice (Sara Paxton), a turning point in political media coverage. “The Front Runner” raises many timely questions about transparency, character, journalism, morality, and ethics that will keep audiences talking long after the credits roll. Critics were mixed at Telluride; Toronto could turn the tide.

Metascore: 57.

Read More:‘The Front Runner’ Review: Hugh Jackman Is Perfectly Cast as a Man Who Would Have Been President — Telluride

Likely nomination: If the movie works with audiences and liberal Academy voters, Jackman could wind up in the Actor race.

[jo]

More predictions of the Oscar possibilities --


splashreport.com/telluride-film-festival-oscar-hopefuls/


Excerpts ( check out the rest of the predictions from the link) --

Audience reaction to that may be the determining factor. I would be surprised if the other debuts—The Front Runner, The Old Man and the Gun, and White Boy Rick—made it in. They received a mixed reception. Anything could happen at TIFF or when the audience speaks of course.

What of the acting races? Little if anything from Telluride offered valuable clues about yet another thin Best Actor race (unlike last year, when prohibitive favorite Gary Oldman made his debut there and never looked back). I suppose Hugh Jackman will get in by default for playing Gary Hart in The Front Runner, and Ryan Gosling should have a decent shot for playing the famous Armstrong. Lucas Hedges also has a shot at a nomination for playing the lead in Boy Erased, and Robert Redford has a shot at a career-closing nod for The Old Man and the Sea.

Maybe Hugh Jackman and Jason Reitman should make their presence in Toronto more pronounced. Jason is included in another forum, this time organized by the Toronto festival ( I think he was also part of a Telluride special issues discussion forum).


Hugh should maybe stop looking at mountains ( jk ) and make his presence more obvious at the festival -- I think the press screening, the regular screening, and the Press Conference/Q&A are all separately scheduled in 2 days. Hope his presence is more marked -- as sometimes that is needed to give more exposure to a film that needs to be highlighted more! He does have a big fanbase and Hugh charms us best when he meets with fans! And there are his 2 recent major successes which were crowd pleasers : Logan and The Greatest Showman!

In Toronto, there are no prizes but the audience is allowed to vote for the most popular movie. Prisoners was voted second most-liked movie in Toronto when it screened there in 2013, after a premiere showing at Telluride. Both Jason R and Denis V, the film directors of each film, are Canada-born.



Jo

[jo]

The Los Angeles Times gives its own pre-Oscar assessment of potential contenders --

www.latimes.com/entertainment/movies/la-et-mn-telluride-film-festival-wrap-up-20180904-story.html

The Telluride Film Festival, which concluded Monday, proudly sets itself apart from bigger and flashier festivals. There is no backroom deal-making or juries doling out prizes at the scenic Rocky Mountain gathering, where Hollywood directors and stars mingle with local hikers and their dogs, and the unofficial dress code of jeans and untucked shirts is as far from the glamour of Cannes as you can get.

“We know what we want to remain, and where things don’t jibe with our ethos and culture, it’s pretty easy to keep them out,” said the festival’s executive director, Julie Huntsinger. “I feel like we’re still in a sweet spot.”
For all its efforts to stay true to pure, unadulterated movie love, though, Telluride — which has played host to eight of the last nine best picture winners — can’t deny its increasingly critical position in the awards-season calendar. As the 44th edition of the fest unfolded over Labor Day weekend, all eyes were on the 33 movies in the festival’s main program to see which might get an early boost in the pursuit of Oscar glory.

Two of this Oscar season’s most anticipated films — Damien Chazelle’s sweeping Neil Armstrong biopic “First Man” and Alfonso Cuarón’s poetic, deeply personal period family drama “Roma” — screened simultaneously on the festival’s opening night, a prime slot that in the past two years propelled “Moonlight” and “Lady Bird” to acclaim. And, following their strong receptions at the Venice Film Festival, both films were embraced by the Telluride crowd.

“This film is autobiographical, in the sense that 90% of the scenes come out of my memory,” Cuarón told the audience of the black-and-white, Spanish-language “Roma,” which many are predicting could land Netflix its first spot in the best picture race after it hits theaters and the streaming service in December. “We shot in the places where these scenes took place.”


In a sign of the streamer’s increasing push into this year’s awards race, top Netflix executives Reed Hastings, Ted Sarandos and Scott Stuber were all on hand to support “Roma” and the company’s other films at the festival, including Orson Welles’ never-released final film, “The Other Side of the Wind” and a companion Welles documentary, “They’ll Love Me When I’m Dead.”


Speaking to The Times the day after “First Man” screened, Damien Chazelle — marking his return to Telluride after his 2016 musical “La La Land” played here — said the film, which Universal opens Oct. 12, attempts to explore the less well known aspects of the historic Apollo 11 moon mission and the sacrifices and tragedies that Armstrong (played by Ryan Gosling) underwent along the way.

“We’re trying to puncture the myth that this was a fun adventure,” said Chazelle, who found himself navigating a controversy that flared up during the festival over his decision not to include a scene of Armstrong planting an American flag on the moon. “I mean, certainly it was an adventure, but to kind of treat it as fun and games sort of does a disservice to the people who put themselves on the line.”

While “Roma” and “First Man” sucked up a lot of the oxygen — something already in short supply at 8,750 feet above sea level — a number of other movies also got a leg up as awards season cranks into gear.

Director Yorgos Lanthimos’ bizarro, profane period dramedy “The Favourite,” which centers on a power struggle between two scheming cousins in the 18th century court of Queen Anne, built on its enthusiastic reception at the Venice Film Festival, with many predicting that the film’s three stars — Olivia Colman, Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz — as well as the film itself could become serious awards contenders for Fox Searchlight (which released the reigning best picture champ, “The Shape of Water”).

Stone, who was honored by the festival with a Silver Medallion Award along with Cuarón and Cambodian filmmaker Rithy Panh, said she relished the chance to play a character who is utterly conniving and devious. “I did still have to think about being likable because she has to use her charm,” she told The Times. “But all the other facets to her were wonderful.”


The light-hearted crime dramedy “The Old Man & the Gun” — a real-life story of a gang of elderly bank robbers — also received a warm reception. Robert Redford, who has announced that this will be the final film of his legendary, seven-decade acting career, received a standing ovation when he arrived at the first screening.

“I think I’ve been doing this since I was 21, and I have put my soul into it, and I said to myself, ‘That’s enough. Why don’t you quit while you are a little bit ahead?’ ” the 82-year-old Redford told the audience. “I couldn’t think of a better project to go out on than this film.” (At the same time, he left the door open a crack, saying, “Never say never.”)
Other performances also received strong buzz coming out of the festival. Melissa McCarthy drew praise for her turn toward the dramatic as an author turned literary forger in director Marielle Heller’s “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”



Hugh Jackman was roundly declared a contender in this year’s lead actor race for his performance as scandal-plagued 1988 presidential candidate Gary Hart in Jason Reitman’s “The Front Runner” — one of several films with timely political overtones at this year’s festival, including the abortion documentary “Reversing Roe” and Charles Ferguson’s four-hour doc “Watergate.”



Nicole Kidman’s transformative turn as a detective in director Karyn Kusama’s gritty crime drama “Destroyer” led many to predict that the actress, who won the lead actress Academy Award in 2003 for “The Hours,” could land her fifth Oscar nomination for her work in the film.


Director Karyn Kusama's crime drama "Destroyer" could put Nicole Kidman in line for her fifth Oscar nomination. (Telluride Film Festival)

Kidman also earned kudos, along with costars Lucas Hedges and Russell Crowe, for the emotionally wrenching gay-conversion-therapy drama “Boy Erased,” which drew generally positive reviews in its first festival outing.

As attention shifts away from Telluride and toward the splashier Toronto Film Festival, which kicks off Sept. 6, “Boy Erased” writer-director and costar Joel Edgerton said that he, for one, is trying to tune out the noise of who’s up and who’s down in the early stages of the Oscar derby.

“I’ve had that experience before as an actor where people lean in and whisper to you, ‘This is your year, pal,’ ” Edgerton told The Times. “You start to buy a ticket to your own myth party, and then you feel dirty at the end of the year. I kept saying to people, ‘Let’s just make a movie that’s as good as we can make it, and if that happens, cool. But let’s not start patting ourselves on the back just yet.’ ”



Josh Rottenberg covers the film business for the Los Angeles Times. He previously worked as a senior writer at Entertainment Weekly, and his work has also appeared in the New York Times, Fast Company, Details and other publications.