LOGAN : Box Office

[jo]

We'll start with predictions for the box office ... and then use the same thread when the box office results come in in early March --

[jo]

I do not agree with his outlook of a negative impact of James Mangold being in the director's chair! Most XMen fans liked THE WOLVERINE ...and while they disliked the high-octane comicbook-y ending, fans attributed that to FOX interference! The universal and highly favorable reaction to the first LOGAN trailer indicates that Mangold's approach to the final Wolverine movie, albeit different in tone from previous XMEN movies or even comicbook movies, is regarded as a welcome and refreshing change of pace! The trailer must have been composed from the assembly of filmed scenes now in the Edit suite and that can only be attributed to Mangold's entire helming of the movie. Even the choice of the widely-accepted background music must have been his own ( he did direct Johnny Cash's biopic movie). He and Hugh seem to have developed a strong professional shorthand -- and that must have worked well in making this movie. His interview with EMPIRE, albeit addressing the trailer, shows us his cinematic vision and directorial approach...and it can only be a positive factor, expressing that his goal was, to paraphrase another movie that Jackman starred in although from a completely different genre , would be "heightened realism" -- "no soul-less violence, humanist, real", in Mangold's own words!


A few other factors for consideration --

*The China factor -- the overseas market's success can be significantly increased if the movie is allowed in the Chinese market ( second only to the USA in size) despite the R rating. Deadpool was not allowed in China because of the three factors comprising its R rating ( violence, language, nudity). Presumably the main argument against LOGAN could be the R-rated violence, but that could possibly be "scrubbed" ( as they are wont to do when releasing films in China) for purposes of the film's exhibition there. Hugh Jackman is relatively popular in China having made personal appearances in China and Hongkong.

*The Marketing Campaign -- FOX is off to an excellent start with the first trailer and the series of unusual teaser images! Can they sustain this? Will the next trailer focus on more of the early sentiment generated by the first one, with its dark tone and character-driven movie promise? Or will they add the elements usually expected of a comic book movie - such as the high-octane action scenes promised by Mangold, other comic-book hallmarks to give us a more complete picture? Given the strong and likely unexpected reaction to the first trailer, will FOX now be more encouraged to increase promotional spending ( excellent timing for a SUPERBOWL ad, other TV spots, collaterals such as Billboards, standees, merchandise - which hopefully they can repackage as FOX promos ( not Marvel) by using the Thanks/Farewell-Hugh theme, etc ? When will we see the iconic first poster on Times Square? Will the succeeding materials show a complete picture? Will there be set interviews to shed more light on the movie plot...or will we be left in the dark so our questions can be answered only by the movie itself? Will the anticipation level for the movie be raised even more as March approaches?!!

*The Farewell Tour -- as repeatedly highlighted in any article on the trailer, on social media, on any reactions to the trailer -- the sentiment is extremely strong that fans are almost upset to see Hugh Jackman leave the role after LOGAN! But there is implicit understanding on why he is doing that! Will fan sentiment towards Hugh Jackman's farewell Wolverine movie drive strong reception to the movie...and even encourage repeat ( and repeat) patronage! It is amazing how the trailer itself and the fact that this will be Jackman's final screen appearance as Wolverine has generated TEARFUL reactions!!

Will Hugh be involved in a more protracted media tour? Will he visit more cities in the USA ? Will there be more premieres in different cities of the world, even more than Days of Future Past? All of these, not just to invite people to see the movie, but to say THANKS for fan patronage over 17 years!

*The Mentor -- this will also likely be the final appearance of Patrick Stewart's as Prof Xavier. But what the trailer highlights even more was the strong and close bond between Wolverine and Prof X, their strong mentor-friend relationship established in the first XMen movie and strengthened in succeeding team movies ( X-2/X-3/DOFP)... as well as the strong screen chemistry between Jackman and Stewart! This seems like one of the driving forces in the storyline, with its character-driven plot.

*The Future of the Franchise -- Is this the end of the line, too, for the franchise? Fanboys are very eager to know if the movie will give clues as to the future direction of the franchise! The XMEN movies has its own superhero movie/comicbook movie constituency -- the first XMen movie re-invented the genre...and maybe LOGAN is the new evolution !


Jo