LOGAN - Box Office

[jo]

The first projections for DOMESTIC ( North America) are out, from BoxOffice.com which is usually quite reliable in their commercial outlook for incoming movies ( sometimes, to my dismay ) --

pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-logan-shack-leap-fall/

Long Range Forecast: ‘Logan,’ ‘The Shack,’ ‘Leap!’ ‘Before I Fall’

Author Boxoffice Staff Published January 6, 2017 Comments 0


The month of March has surged in recent years to become one of the biggest months at the box office, rivaling even the summer and holiday movie seasons. The first weekend of March 2017 will try to start off with a bang in hopes of rivaling the billion-dollar March of 2016, when Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice and Zootopia were huge. Leading the way this time will be Fox’s superhero action sequel Logan. Also opening on the first weekend of the month are the Lionsgate drama The Shack, the Weinstein Company animated Leap! and the Open Road Films teen drama Before I Fall.



Logan (Fox)

PROS:

Hugh Jackman stars as Wolverine in the third solo film starring the most famous character from the X-Men franchise. Both previous installments were hits, as 2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine started with an $85.0 million opening en route to $179.8 million total, while 2013’s The Wolverine began with $53.1 million on its way to $132.5 million total.

The trailer has been gaining strong buzz for its highly unusual strategy of showing almost entirely emotional shots alongside the tragic song “Hurt” by Johnny Cash, with very few action or special effects shots — a virtually unheard-of strategy for a superhero film.


CONS:

Although the MPAA has not yet rated the film, rumors abound that it will receive an R rating, unlike the PG-13 earned by the previous two Wolverine films and all X-Men installments. Conventional wisdom is that this would hurt the film’s grosses, although that paradigm may have shifted since last year’s R-rated superhero Deadpool earned $363.0 million.

Although both the first two films were indeed hits, the second installment did represent a 26.3 percent downturn in domestic earnings from the first installment. Will the third installment be able to reverse that trend? After all, unlike both previous installments and almost much every other superhero movie, the main character’s name is not in the title here — perhaps some people won’t realize it’s a new Wolverine movie? (Then again, The Dark Knight became one of the most financially successful films of all time in 2008 despite not having the word “Batman” in the title.)

Check out the official Boxoffice Pro long range forecast in the table below.


Title
Wide Release Date
Distributor
Opening Weekend
Cumulative

Logan
Fri, Mar 3
Fox
$81,000,000
$205,000,000

A little over $ 200 million is not bad for Cumulative DOMESTIC box office results. Hopefully, the second trailer and the real onrush of promotions and publicity will push those figures much, much more!

[jo]

Predictions for LOGAN --

*Analysis of Positive/Negative Factors that may affect Box Office Performance
*Predictions (Pessimistic/Realistic/Optimistic Projections)

If I may summarize --

Positive Factors :
*R-rating
*No high budget
*Soft competition
*Franchise is in a good position
*Very good reactions to first trailer
*Hype over HJ's last Wolverine movie

Negative Factors :
*James Mangold as the director


Jo's comments --

*Deadpool's R-rating proved that a well-made R-rated movie can be a great box office success -- so it can be a positive factor for LOGAN;
*Re Soft competition -- word on KONG has not been overly positive/Beauty and the Beast is a totally different market;
*Could the relative failure against expectations for APOCALYPSE affect LOGAN? For one, the Wolverine cameo was well-received ( and possibly augured what an R-rating for a Wolverine movie could look like);
*Trailer -- could the second trailer at least come close to the ovation for the first one?


*Strongly disagree on his Negative factor assessment -- the direction of James Mangold ( who also co-wrote the screenplay) will arguably be the best factor going for this movie ( plus of course Hugh Jackman's portrayal... and the quality of the script). If the blogger's objections is the third act of THE WOLVERINE, that is generally attributed to the studio's interference


*One factor not discussed which could weigh heavily on the Overseas projections -- will it be released in China where an R-rating is not always well-received by the approving authorities? On the other hand, Deadpool was not allowed to be released in China because of its R-rating but it still did well overseas. There is some hopeful expectations ( voiced by someone who covers the China film market) that China will allow its release because HJ's link with the Chinese audiences is very good and because its R-rating will be mostly on the violence depicted ( which could be toned down if released there). We'll see.

*Another factor that has not been discussed -- the publicity and promotion campaign has been very positive so far, the latest being the entry at the prestigious Berlinale, probably as a showcase for the film for the European market.

*How much time will HJ spend on promoting the film? Expectedly, he will be free of filming duties ( Greatest Showman) for the time needed to do a well-covered media tour and to attend world-wide premieres!





Predictions :

Pessimistic

Opening Weekend (USA) : $ 60 M
Domestic Cumulative : $ 168 M
Overseas : $320 M
Total : $ 488 M


Realistic

Opening Wkd ( USA) : $ 70 M
Domestic Cumulative : $ 203 M
Overseas : $ 430 M
Total : $ 633 M


Optimistic

Opening Wkd ( USA) : $ 90 M
Domestic Cumulative : $ 252 M
Overseas : $ 498 M
Total : $ 750 M



Let's make the Optimistic Projections happen

[jo]

No word yet on whether the R-rated LOGAN will be released in China. R-rated DEADPOOL failed to make it to China.

On the other hand, LEGO BATMAN will be released on March 3 ( same date as US release date for LOGAN) in China. BEAUTY AND THE BEAST secured a China day-date release coinciding with the USA on March 17.

chinafilminsider.com/lego-batman-movie-beauty-beast-get-china-release/?utm_source=China+Film+Insider+Newsletter+Update&utm_campaign=b6bd91e04f-Daily_Newsletter_August_228_22_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_9a066b9dc2-b6bd91e04f-226845293

[jo]

LOGAN is supposed to be tracking for a $ 60 million opening weekend two weeks before it is released in the USA.

Will these figures increase much further after the reviews are out and publicity is intensified?

www.thewrap.com/logan-looking-at-60-million-opening-two-weeks-out/

[jo]

Yeyyyyyyyy!!!! It is not going to swell the box office that much -- but --

I got my tickets for an IMAX showing! There's a story to this -- initial inquiry with the cinema with IMAX facilities showed that the screenings will be on IMAX-3D! Disappointed! I don't wait to get a headache!... I sent them an email inquiring about a possible screening on IMAX-2D. No reply yet... But this morning, when I checked the online site -- they are now showing IMAX-2D ticket offerings! A pair of tickets were readily purchased!

I was as excited as I used to be when buying tickets for a Hugh Broadway show!

I have a feeling that this movie will mean to him as much as The Boy from Oz and Les Miserables did! All hallmarks of a very versatile career!


Jo

[hughmanity]

It is too bad that Kong Skull Island and the juggernaut that is Beauty and the Beast follow so closely afterwards.

[jo]

It really doesn't matter -- fans are happy that they are getting " a love-letter-of-a-movie" from Hugh!

There are too many social media reactions now which I cannot all post -- and they are all very happy! Even quite a number of ecstatic GIFs!

Someone said that a filmblogger ( from CHUD) who saw it said that the critics with him all went wild!

This is a mature movie and if the cinematic vision fulfills Jackman's and Mangold's ambitions about the movie -- and fans like it tremendously -- I am glad that they went for it!

Comparison not valid with PG movies


Jo

[mamaleh]

Glad you got your IMAX tickets, Jo.

I'm cautiously optimistic about the film's potential success, both critically and at the box office. If I recall correctly, the only Oscar nomination/win for a character from a superhero movie went to Heath Ledger for THE DARK KNIGHT. There was much speculation about Ryan Reynolds' possibly securing a nomination this year, but that didn't materialize. Wouldn't it be wonderful if Hugh were to be the first actor portraying a superhero to be nominated for Best Actor (Ledger won for Supporting Actor)?

Let's think positive.

Ellen

[jo]

Even if LOGAN is released even before this year's Oscar winners ( for 2016 movies) have not yet been announced

Timing is not in the movie's favor -- only factor that may work in terms of attention from AMPAS is that this is Hugh Jackman's valedictory Wolverine portrayal -- that may count because that represents 17 commitment years to a well-loved franchise!


Of course, The Greatest Showman is also lurking by the time the next awards season comes along -- hey, did they ever nominate one actor for two roles, but only one nod so as not to cancel each other out?


Okay -- off to the Official Reviews thread as I would like to post what I have just read of SuperheroHype's summary of early tweets from filmsite bloggers! They make my heart swell for Hugh

Jo

[jo]

Rising momentum of LOGAN has spawned various speculations on --

*its box office performance on Opening Weekend
*potential impact of R-rated movies on the future of comicbook/superhero movies.

www.cnbc.com/2017/02/24/fox-looks-to-crank-up-the-volume-with-logan-an-r-rated-wolverine-movie.html


Not anaylyzed, but even more important is how the movie will do on the overseas market, in terms of box office potential and the acceptance of R-rated movies on the international front.


Jo

[jo]

BoxOfficePro continues to predict an opening weekend of $81 million, which is the same prediction as in early January.

pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-born-china-free-fire-leap-unforgettable/


It is also ranked # 1 in terms of Facebook tracking and #3 on Twitter tracking.

[mamaleh]

The extreme violence may turn off some segments of the moviegoing public, but I think the strong word of mouth should propel the numbers to where they should be.

On the other extreme (family appeal): the live-action version of Disney's BEAUTY AND THE BEAST is predicted to haul in $130 in its opening weekend!

Ellen

[jo]

I have been thinking about the issue of extreme violence for LOGAN --

*None of the critics ( top critics or regular critics) so far published have ever said that the extreme violence is gratuitous, unless I misremembered. In fact, they cite that the violence heightens the dramatic impact of the poignant moments of the movie.


Comparative Critics Consensus at Rotten Tomatoes for 4 sample R-rated movies --

LOGAN Critics Consensus: Hugh Jackman makes the most of his final outing as Wolverine with a gritty, nuanced performance in a violent but surprisingly thoughtful superhero action film that defies genre conventions.


DEADPOOL Critics Consensus: Fast, funny, and gleefully profane, the fourth-wall-busting Deadpool subverts superhero film formula with wildly entertaining -- and decidedly non-family-friendly -- results.


SAVING PRIVATE RYAN Critics Consensus: Anchored by another winning performance from Tom Hanks, Steven Spielberg's unflinchingly realistic war film virtually redefines the genre.


PRISONERS Critics Consensus: Prisoners has an emotional complexity and a sense of dread that makes for absorbing (and disturbing) viewing.

*Interesting exchange on Twitter --

Sal Farsi‏@salfarsi7 Feb 24
@mang0ld Can my 14 year old brother watch logan? He loves brutal Violence movies. But the Nudity is it very sensitive or should he stay home


Mangold
Verified account
‏@mang0ld
@salfarsi7 Your call Sal. You see a pair of breasts for a moment. What have we become when brutal violence is ok but breasts are too much?

I think probably from a general male perspective the issue of extreme violence does not detract too much from the appeal of the movie.

*I have just analyzed the demos of IMDB readers for DEADPOOL and LOGAN ( much smaller sample - because it has only been seen by those who had the privilege of early screenings), both R-rated superhero movies ( Deadpool has an RT rating of 84%), and I was surprised at the similarity in the demographic behavior. The voting population accounted for DEADPOOL was 600,000 while LOGAN only had 4000 votes counted in. But it is interesting how statistical distribution tend to hew close to early trends later on. Just like electoral polls!

The voters are of course largely a male voting population. The strongest favorable votes come of course from the younger crowd. The less favorable votes are from females and from the older crowds.


Please view the statistical analysis for these movies. Not sure of course that we can now draw definitive conclusions for LOGAN, but there is surprising ( although not really, given the kind of movies they are) similarities in the statistical distribution.

For LOGAN, with average votes of 9.5/10 coming from almost 4000 voters --

www.imdb.com/title/tt3315342/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt

For DEADPOOL with average votes of 8.1/10 from almost 600,000 voters --

www.imdb.com/title/tt1431045/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt



*Let's take a look at war movies, especially of the more recent kind.

SAVING PRIVATE RYAN, also rated R (presumably because of the violent scenes of war), and earning a rating of 92% at Rotten Tomatoes, showed the following IMDB voters statistical distribution for its 930,000 voters with an average rating of 8.6/10

www.imdb.com/title/tt0120815/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt


*Let's look at the R-rated PRISONERS ( Certified Fresh at 81% at RT) and its IMDB voting profile ( 8.1/10 from over 400,000 voters) --

www.imdb.com/title/tt1392214/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt

It also displays similar demos profile as DEADPOOL and LOGAN, including the less favorable votes coming from the older demos.

It looks like there is similarity for SAVING PRIVATE RYAN in the statistical distribution, except for the older demos who liked the movie as well. Maybe the reason for that are the historical references which would interest older voters and the more common genre to which it belonged?



So, presumably it is the predominant male demos that will push LOGAN numbers. This will likely be in the older teens/young male adults/middle-aged male adults categories, who have followed the comics and the movie franchise in the last 2 decades or so. Interesting that there were many comments mostly from male social media entries which said this is the Wolverine movie that they have always wanted. Because in the comicbooks, Wolverine was never a shy one when it came to violence. Although, there is a nod to the angst that he felt when he came from such encounters...And because it seems to have earned such high praise from critics -- some moviegoers who are not necessarily comicbook fans may want to check it out. Of course all this talk of possible Oscar honors is making me nervous -- but if that helps the LOGAN box office, why ever not

I guess Jackman female fans may want to see LOGAN, presumably and maybe only once? Or maybe a second time? Did you see PRISONERS more than once?


I am glad that I do like action-oriented movies and have already booked two sets of dates and will likely go for a third one. Based on current RT critics reviews, it is being hailed not only as a great superhero movie, but a great movie, period! It is currently sitting at 96% at Rotten Tomatoes ( compare with THE DARK KNIGHT and IRON MAN, heretofore highest-rated comicbook/superhero movies, at 94%). Besides, I would like to see, more than once, what many have hailed as one of Hugh Jackman's greatest film performances!


We'll see how it goes --


Jo

[mamaleh]

Jo, you could carve out a second career as a marketing analyst!

I saw PRISONERS three times in theaters, even though each time was considerably more difficult to sit through, knowing what would transpire. But I had to admire the amazing acting job Hugh did in that film.

There's a certain word "Laura" speaks late in LOGAN that just about tore me up at the preview screening Friday evening. So when I go back for repeat viewings, I'll be ready for it. It's such a well-made film, despite the violence, and Hugh and Patrick are so good together and separately, that there's no way I'm not going back for more.

Ellen

[jo]

This lady poster from the UK tweets --

In reply to Wolver-Steve
karenkati‏@karenkati1983 19m
19 minutes ago

Got such ganas 2see #Logan @wolversteve! Everyone's buzzin about it. Kids going w all their mates @mang0ld @wolverinemovie @realhughjackman

In the UK, it is R-15! It is going to be a really big party! I may be wrong, but there is a certain cachet among young people to brag about having seen a movie with a mature theme and treatment, and a highly praised movie by critics at that!

Not trying to look down my nose at Beauty and the Beast ( I am sure it is going to be a billionaire...and I am a fan of the animated version) -- but I think boys would rather be allowed to see LOGAN than go with their Mums to see Gaston ( whose character in the live-action adaptation, unfortunately, has been changed from an amusing monster of a villain to a more sympathetic one...with not much biceps to spare). They would probably prefer to see Kong, after Logan, than the Beast


Btw, this was the marketing material ( if I remember right, this was compiled by FoxUK from UK critics/media) attached to her tweet and to WolverSteve's prior tweet --




Jo

[chessie]

I may try to talk my husband into PRE - viewing the movie for me. I'm such a wuss when it comes to gore (have yet to see Saving Private Ryan) that I'll have to be told when to close my eyes! Present- day moviegoers don't seemed to be phased by violence, however, so that aspect isn't likely to keep very many away.

Too bad there isn't some sort of medication to toughen up us softies.

Carol

[jo]

When we see how newscasts these days use real-life photos to depict the harsh ( and oftentimes violent) realities of life -- it sorts of make it a little easier to deal with movies that include a lot of unflinching violence. I still cannot forget that image of that little boy from Syria who was drowned and washed ashore while their family was trying to flee from violence. No image of gore could be more unnerving and more heartbreaking than that image of that dead little boy

Go back a few decades ago- towards the end of the Vietnam war. There was an award-winning photograph which shook the world -- the image of a nearly naked young girl fleeing from the effect of the dropping of a napalm bomb. The expression on her face mirrored a thousand times the horror of war.

Re LOGAN -- I do realize that many ( or most) of us will likely cringe from the violent images in the movie -- but maybe reading some of the reviews on ROTTEN TOMATOES will help us appreciate or understand why the violence is an important part of telling that story!


Jo

[jo]

Box office predictions world-wide are running high for Opening weekend --- and may even top these expectations when the film eventually opens!

deadline.com/2017/02/logan-wolverine-box-office-opening-1201913947/

‘Logan’ Looks To Roar $170M+ Around The World In First Weekend – Box Office Preview
by Anthony D'Alessandro
and Nancy Tartaglione

February 28, 2017 3:30pm



Before Disney’s Beauty and the Beast looks to tear every inch of the March box office to shreds with a triple digit opening, 20th Century Fox’s Logan is looking to set the table.



Here’s the big deal: The Wolverine threequel is rated R, the first time ever for the franchise. Ratcheting up a sequel’s rating from a PG-13 rating to an R, is quite uncommon, particularly after the series has established itself with a general audience (that said, there have been various franchises in the past that have tamed their ratings in an effort to grab a greater audience, i.e. 2005’s Fantastic Four moving from a PG-13 to a PG with 2007’s Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer; also 1984’s Police Academy going from an R to a PG-13 with its 1985 sequel). However the R-rating is a risk well worth taking. As Fox proved with Deadpool, fanboys want more red meat in their superhero movies; previous ones include The Watchmen. Kick-Ass, Blade, 300 and The Punisher.


So will more bloodshed and boobs keep business at bay for Logan? 


Hell, no. Stateside, the movie, which is directed by its previous sequel’s helmer James Mangold, is looking to gross at least $65M which would rank as the second best debut in the Wolverine series following its 2009 first chapter X-Men Origins: Wolverine ($85M). Worldwide the Marvel superhero looks to scratch at least $170M, $105M of that coming from all foreign territories save Japan (a new Doraemon movie is opening there — best to stay away from that). Exiting an all-media Los Angeles screening two weeks ago, journos couldn’t be happier with Logan with that heat translating into a 94% Certified Fresh Rotten Tomatoes rating.



However, there’s a chance that Logan will climb higher around the world, the wildcard, natch, being China. Here in the states, it’s the widest R-rated release ever in an estimated 4,071 theaters. Of that its the widest Imax R release at 381, and PLF at 580. Rivals think Logan has a total shot at blowing past $70M. Previews start Thursday at 7PM.


As far as China goes, that market always comes with its own set of vagaries, but it also has a locomotive steaming through in the form of Resident Evil: The Final Chapter (The Lego Batman Movie is also opening this weekend, although the original did not release there). Still, we know the Middle Kingdom can be on-and-off. If the current stream of goodwill towards Hollywood pics — i.e. Resident Evil and xXx: Return Of Xander Cage — continues, Logan could claw out a bigger overall opening number sending its foreign debut well past $130M.

China was the top market on 2013’s The Wolverine, finaling at $41M. Last year’s X-Men: Apocalypse grossed $121M in the Middle Kingdom and 2014’s Days Of Future Past picked up $116.5M in the PROC.

Logan also counts great reviews overseas which were first spurred by the world premiere at the Berlin Film Festival. Leading men Hugh Jackman and Patrick Stewart were in attendance, shining a global media spotlight on the movie, which Mangold said he hoped would reach a wide audience with thought-provoking fare. “It’s important that movies that reference pop culture and are franchises and have large national audiences do something more than sell Happy Meals or T-shirts but make audiences ask questions,” the director said.

Apart from appearing in Berlin, the team traveled to London and did a big junket in Taipei. Overseas, as elsewhere, the title “Logan” has an impact on awareness; it’s not entirely clear this is an X-Men movie, in other words. And while that title and the marketing have been massaged in some cases overseas, once audiences get their claws in, the expectation is that the movie will leg out.

In a sign of prescience among the writing team, issues surrounding the Mexican border were already in the script, Jackman said in Berlin, before the U.S. presidential debates began. There is hope that the story, a darker look at the X-Men universe — which Jackman pitched as “Little Miss Sunshine with Marvel characters and violence,” per Mangold — will resonate in today’s world.


The last time Jackman sprouted adamantium claws in a spinoff, The Wolverine came in low domestically ($132.5M) but was also, at the time, the biggest of the full franchise offshore at $283M. It has since been overtaken by X-Men: Days Of Future Past, Deadpool and X-Men: Apocalypse. Deadpool, given its R rating domestically and the X-Men heritage would seem like a comp, but this movie is likely to have a different demo.

The biggest market overseas on The Wolverine was China, followed by Russia at $22.2M, Brazil at $21.4M and the UK with $21M. Mexico was also a key play. There have been big currency swings in those markets so, as per usual, a grain of salt needs to be taken when comping older dollars to today’s.

Also opening this weekend stateside is Open Road’s teen chick flick Before I Fall (est. projection $3M-$4M) and Lionsgate’s faith-based Sam Worthington-Octavia Spencer movie The Shack based on the William P. Young bestseller which has sold north of 10M copies. Rival estimates have the Stuart Hazeldine-directed opening between $10M-$11M. We’ll have more details on those movies later. Universal/Blumhouse’s Get Out is projected to ease between -35% to -40% for $20M-$21.6M.

Crossing fingers and toes and claws

Will be watching the movie in exactly 3 hours time!!


Jo

[jo]

http://instagram.com/p/BRE_QrojoIe

It's already LOGAN DAY today (March 1 ) in other parts of the world

[jo]

Per IMDB -- release dates so far :

Germany

17 February 2017
(Berlin International Film Festival)

Taiwan
28 February 2017

Belgium
1 March 2017

Colombia
1 March 2017

France
1 March 2017

UK
1 March 2017

Indonesia
1 March 2017

Ireland
1 March 2017

Italy
1 March 2017

South Korea
1 March 2017

Philippines
1 March 2017

Sweden
1 March 2017

Armenia
2 March 2017

Argentina
2 March 2017

Australia
2 March 2017

Bahrain
2 March 2017

Brazil
2 March 2017

Chile
2 March 2017

Czech Republic
2 March 2017

Germany
2 March 2017

Denmark
2 March 2017

Georgia
2 March 2017

Greece
2 March 2017

Hong Kong
2 March 2017

Croatia
2 March 2017

Hungary
2 March 2017

Israel
2 March 2017

Kyrgyzstan
2 March 2017

Cambodia
2 March 2017

Kazakhstan
2 March 2017

Moldova
2 March 2017

Republic of Macedonia
2 March 2017

Malaysia
2 March 2017

Netherlands
2 March 2017

Portugal
2 March 2017

Russia
2 March 2017

Singapore
2 March 2017

Slovakia
2 March 2017

Tajikistan
2 March 2017

Ukraine
2 March 2017

Austria
3 March 2017

Bangladesh
3 March 2017

Bulgaria
3 March 2017

Canada
3 March 2017

China
3 March 2017

Estonia
3 March 2017

Spain
3 March 2017

Finland
3 March 2017

India
3 March 2017

Sri Lanka
3 March 2017
(Colombo) (premiere)
Lithuania
3 March 2017

Latvia
3 March 2017

Norway
3 March 2017

Poland
3 March 2017

Romania
3 March 2017

Turkey
3 March 2017

Taiwan
3 March 2017

USA
3 March 2017

Japan
1 June 2017

[hughmanity]

Have a great day at Logan, Jo! So jealous that while I'm sleeping, you'll be watching!!

[jo]

I have been reading the tweets of those who have seen the movie -- there were so many of them, I would not be able to reprint all of them here -- we might run out of band width ( or whatever you call it)

But one thing I will be taking along with me -- handkies and tissues -- so many, fanboys included, teared up watching the movie, especially the emotional denouement!

Sniff, sniff -- just reading their tweets!


Jo

[jo]

deadline.com/2017/03/logan-box-office-opening-fandango-advance-sales-x-men-1202032981/

‘Logan’ Outstripping Pre-Sales Of ‘X-Men’ Ensemble Movies On Fandango

by Anthony D'Alessandro

March 1, 2017 9:56am



Further proof that 20th Century Fox’s R-rated Logan is poised to rattle the March box office this Friday: Fandango is reporting that that advance ticket sales for the grizzly Hugh Jackman threequel are ahead of all X-Men movies at this point in their sales cycle — that’s not counting Deadpool.


Yesterday, we reported that Logan, sans Japan, is bound to post at least a $170M global opening. China could push that opening higher. Fox sees $65M stateside; rivals say it will break $70M. What many trackers are counting on is for Logan to post the second-best opening opening in the Wolverine series after 2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine ($85M). Director James Mangold returns as director after helming 2013’s part two The Wolverine. The two Wolverine movies have made $787.8M, and Logan should take the spinoff trilogy past the $1 billion mark during its global run.

The highest opening for an X-Men ensemble movie is 2006’s X-Men:The Last Stand which opened over the Memorial Day holiday to $102.7M.

[jo]

BoxOfficePro has more optimistic projections for Opening Weekend!

pro.boxoffice.com/weekend-forecast-logan-the-shack-before-i-fall/

Weekend Forecast: ‘Logan’ Sharpening Claws for $80M+ Launch; ‘Get Out’ Set to Hold Strong; ‘The Shack’ Eyes Faith-Based Success

Author Shawn Robbins Published March 1, 2017 Comments 0

March is poised to kick off in a big way this weekend as Fox’s highly anticipated Logan unleashes in 4,071 theaters across the country, the most ever for an R-rated title. The tenth film in the overall X-Men franchise will mark both the final appearance of both Hugh Jackman as Wolverine and Patrick Stewart as Professor Charles Xavier — roles they each began 17 years ago.

Adding to that boost of nostalgia-driven interest from audiences, the film is loosely adapting a fan favorite comic book storyline (“Old Man Logan”). Just as importantly, this marks the first R-rated entry in the franchise after years of demand for a true-to-character vision on film of Wolverine. Jackman’s push for this approach was key to his decision in reprising the role one last time, not unlike the well-publicized efforts of Ryan Reynolds get last year’s Deadpool to the screen.

Furthermore, Logan has been “Certified Fresh” on Rotten Tomatoes with an excellent score of 93 percent among 107 critics’ reviews counted as of this article’s publishing. If it can stay above X-Men: Days of Future Past‘s 91 percent, Logan will stand as the best reviewed entry in the entire X filmography.

Social media buzz has naturally been a big driver in our expectations for the film, which we’ve had pegged at around an $80 million domestic opening for over two months in our Long Range Forecast. With Twitter activity comparable to that of Days of Future Past so far this week — as well as very encouraging Facebook growth for what is essentially a standalone character film — we remain optimistic in Logan‘s potential to best the $65.8 million opening weekend of last year’s X-Men: Apocalypse (in large part due to the star power and stronger marketing on display in this case). Its range is fairly wide at this point, with some outside potential to near the $98 million inflation-adjusted of 2009’s first character spin-off, X-Men Origins: Wolverine.

Check out our weekend forecast in the table below.

Title/Distributor/Weekend/Domestic Total through Sunday, March 5/% Change

Logan/Fox/$86,000,000/$86,000,000/NEW

[jo]

FANDANGO reports on LOGAN ticket-buying trends --

pro.boxoffice.com/fandango-logan-sales-slashing-records-1-x-men-movie-presales/

Fandango: ‘Logan’ Slashing Records as #1 ‘X-Men’ Movie in Presales

Author Boxoffice Staff Published March 2, 2017 Comments 0
Their official press release:


LOS ANGELES – MARCH 2, 2017 – Hugh Jackman’s third Wolverine solo movie, “Logan,” is clawing its way to the top of Fandango’s weekend ticket sales and movie buzz indicator Fanticipation with 94 out of 100 points. “Logan” is outpacing all “X-Men” ensemble movies and all previous Wolverine solo outings at the same point in the Fandango sales cycle.

“The promise of a Wolverine story the likes of which we’ve never seen is clearly fueling anticipation for ‘Logan,’” says Fandango Managing Editor Erik Davis. “Fans are itching to see the tantalizing R-rated action-adventure and Hugh Jackman’s final outing as one of the most popular characters in comic book movie history.”

According to a Fandango survey of more than 1,000 “Logan” moviegoers:
96% are excited to see Hugh Jackman in his last Wolverine movie.
94% are excited to see Patrick Stewart returning as Professor X.
86% are interested in seeing a more violent R-rated “X-Men” movie.
76% are intrigued to see Dafne Keen as “Laura/X-23.”
71% would like to see more R-rated superhero movies.


In an exclusive interview with Fandango’s Erik Davis, Hugh Jackman reveals what he will miss the most about playing Wolverine, adding “I wish I were more like him.” You can find the video here.


About Fanticipation   
    
Known for having its finger on the pulse of moviegoers, Fandango’s movie buzz indicator, Fanticipation, provides statistical insight into the movies fans are planning to see in a given weekend. Fanticipation scores (based on a 1 to 100-point scale) are calculated via an algorithm of Fandango’s advance ticket sales, website and mobile traffic, and social media engagement. Fanticipation is not intended as a forecast of the weekend box office; it is a snapshot of movie fan sentiment. Fandango is the ultimate digital network for all things movies, reaching more than 60 million unique visitors per month across its portfolio of digital properties, according to comScore.

Hope LOGAN has a happy weekend