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Post by carouselkathy on Dec 27, 2012 13:51:06 GMT -5
How can film sites make (rank) these predictions? Actors who are Academy members do the voting. DDL may in fact win, but I still think it will be a 2 guy race between his Lincoln and Hugh's Valjean. Daniel was great. However, he has 2 Oscars already and he didn't have to sing his role. It's a toss up. Of course, I thought Clooney and Viola Davis were sure things last year, so what do I know? :-/
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Post by klenotka on Dec 27, 2012 14:13:49 GMT -5
Now, when Les Miz is in theaters and people actually saw it, I read at few movie forums that if the Academy members decide NOT to give DDL the third Oscar, then it should go to Hugh.
But let´s not forget he has to be nominated first. I wish he would get the SAG, it would say something.
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Post by njr on Dec 27, 2012 16:42:43 GMT -5
If he isn't even nominated, I give up!!!!  Nancy |
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Post by jo on Dec 28, 2012 3:03:26 GMT -5
Anyone care to add support for Hugh on this new thread on the IMDB MOVIE AWARDS board ( this is not the Les Miserables Board but a general board for discussions of award speculations)? www.imdb.com/board/bd0000005/nest/208730606I am hoping the awards voters lurk on this kind of threads. Jo |
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Post by jo on Dec 28, 2012 7:24:05 GMT -5
Interestingly, there are quite a few comments on why Hugh is now the only one who can go toe to toe with DDL. Some think he might be this year Jean Dujardin, who won quite a few of the the precursor awards ( SAG,, etc) before he swept the Oscars. Of course, the competition level last year was nowhere near what is brewing for this coming Best Actor race.
Jo
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Post by mamaleh on Dec 28, 2012 8:33:49 GMT -5
Anyone care to add support for Hugh on this new thread on the IMDB MOVIE AWARDS board ( this is not the Les Miserables Board but a general board for discussions of award speculations)? www.imdb.com/board/bd0000005/nest/208730606I am hoping the awards voters lurk on this kind of threads. Jo For what it's worth, I went to the site and outlined the reasons he deserves the Oscar this year. Wishful thinking, I know. As a realist, I think the best we can hope for is a tie in the K. Hepburn-Barbra Streisand mode--and that's if he's even nominated. Ellen |
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Post by jo on Dec 28, 2012 9:32:56 GMT -5
Thanks, Ellen  We all hope for the best! Jo |
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Post by jo on Dec 28, 2012 15:22:06 GMT -5
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Post by klenotka on Dec 28, 2012 16:42:25 GMT -5
Hmm, that the later release would have such an impact? I guess most AMPAS members are decided who to vote but it is nice to read opinions after people actually SAW the movies and don´t judge by reviews anymore.
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Post by jo on Dec 28, 2012 17:28:40 GMT -5
Voting on the Oscar nominations are already ongoing - and results will be announced on January 10, 2013. I think for this one, only the Actors branch ( largest in the AMPAS) will be voting for the acting nominations. It is when the final voting takes place from among the five nominees that the entire AMPAS votes for the selections, except I think in some technical areas. The Oscars are held on February 24, 2013.
Golden Globes winners are announced during televised ceremonies on January 13, 2013.
Even if Les Miserables was released in the US only on December 25, advance screenings for AMPAS and other awards bodies have been ongoing since Thanksgiving weekend, with some featuring Q&A's with the director and the major cast.
Jo
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Post by jo on Dec 30, 2012 4:32:35 GMT -5
There have been discussions on the Les Miserables IMDB Page on Hugh's Oscar chances . Here's one interesting post which I would like to share with you guys -- from a member of the SAG ( he is actually part of the nominating committee - so he may have some inside info?) who regularly posts on the board. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- by maestro-20 5 hours ago (Sat Dec 29 2012 19:38:23) Ignore this User | Report Abuse
UPDATED Sat Dec 29 2012 19:41:13
The Oscars don't always vote for the ABSOLUTE best every year (Jean Dujardin won over the frontrunners last year, which were George Clooney and Brad Pitt).
A lot of it can be sentimental votes, and that can work to Jackman's favor -- he is the golden boy of the Academy (especially after hosting it a few years ago).
The biggest hurdle for DDL is that he IS the frontrunner. But he's always won twice already. Winning a 3rd Oscar will put him past legends such as Spencer Tracy, Jack Nicholson, Tom Hanks, etc. Is AMPAS ready to do that? Also, the consensus is that while DDL is amazing as Lincoln, he's actually given better performances in his last two wins: There Will Be Blood and My Left Foot. His win in There Will be Blood was less than five years ago... that will put him in a slightly less favorable position as far as "sentimental votes" are concerned. Don't get me wrong, he IS the frontrunner and no one will be surprised if he wins.
But Jackman has given the performance of his life/career. The buzz is that he IS Valjean -- no one else can even play Valjean on screen at his level of artistry and charisma. Jackman has the "sentimental votes" in his pocket. The Academy and the general public would LOVE to see him win -- that's one "upset" that they will be gleeful about. So Jackman has an advantage there.
The other black horse would be John Hawkes in The Sessions. Again, Hawkes gets that sentimental vote.
Something you guys may not understand is that the Academy Awards is more of a political thing than just "to award the best." It's not as ridiculous as the Golden Globes, but political nonetheless. The point is DDL doesn't need another Oscar to prove that he is one of the best actors of this generation, but a win for Jackman will win a lot of good will points for AMPAS. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Let's hope he gets the nomination vote on Jan 10...and then hope and pray for the win Jo |
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Post by jo on Dec 30, 2012 8:00:18 GMT -5
>>>the Academy Awards is more of a political thing than just "to award the best." It's not as ridiculous as the Golden Globes, but political nonetheless.<<<
The Golden Globes, which should be a shoo-in for Hugh in the Musical/Comedy category, can be worrisome as to how they will vote. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which is less than 100 in membership, is known to be quite close to Harvey Weinstein (to the extent that there were public accusations that he was paying all-expenses trips for some of the members while campaigning for his pet movies). His known successes include The King's Speech, The Artist, even the Meryl Streep win over Viola Davis last year...This year, one of the films he is pushing is Silver Linings Playbook and its male star Bradley Cooper, who competes directly with Hugh in the category! I hope they really look honestly at the quality of the performance and the degree of difficulty posed by the lead role.
Jo
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Post by Jamie on Dec 30, 2012 10:31:25 GMT -5
Jo I was being very snarky on a site recently and said if Hugh didn't win the GG, they might as well name it the Harvey Weinstein Appreciation award. Got a bit of a blow back on that one. |
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Post by carouselkathy on Dec 30, 2012 13:29:22 GMT -5
Whoa, Jamie! That was great! Weinstein's responsible for taking the Oscar away from Viola. I love Meryl, but THE IRON LADY was not her best performance. Your comment is right on!
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Post by Jamie on Jan 1, 2013 17:52:57 GMT -5
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Post by mamaleh on Jan 4, 2013 20:42:13 GMT -5
The new Entertainment Weekly reveals who is leading in the Academy Awards race. Its "Oscars expert" Anthony Breznican says if he were picking five, it would be "easy": ARGO, LINCOLN, LES MIZ, ZERO DARK THIRTY and SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK, so I assume that if more than five nominees emerge, LES MIZ should definitely be one. As to Best Actor, the nominees will likely be Hugh, DDL, Bradley Cooper, John Hawkes and Denzel Washington--but DDL is the "juggernaut" and "as sure a sure thing you can get for a win." (I'm still hoping for a tie.) Regarding Best Director, Tom Hooper "was the frontrunner" but is so no more since LES MIZ has "absorbed some bad reviews." He's still listed as one of the likely five, but the most vulnerable to a dark-horse candidate. On the Letters page, Jess Cagle says that LES MIZ is one of those movies about which "critics and the Academy will have to agree to disagree."
The Bullseye (final page) has a tiny photo of Hugh and Russell Crowe pretending to race each other on the red carpet in London. Loved Bullseye's caption: "The Oscar race is on. Go, Hugh!" That almost makes up for Lisa Schwarzbaum's horrendous review.
Ellen
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Post by jo on Jan 4, 2013 21:03:53 GMT -5
Can't wait for January 10 -- an even more important date for me than when I can finally get to see the movie !!
It will be the validation of Hugh's tour de force!
I know he did make the top 5 for the SAG ( co-actors' vote, so it could both be an admiration of him as Valjean or as Hugh Jackman) and the Golden Globes ( Hollywood Foreign Press - but this is so tainted with past scandals that I am not so sure it will be fair).
Although if the AMPAS kinda puts him as its golden boy -- why ever not ;D
Jo
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Post by jo on Jan 4, 2013 21:09:32 GMT -5
Lovely show of support!!
Jo
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Post by birchie on Jan 4, 2013 23:12:46 GMT -5
Very surprised by all the DDL is a sure thing talk. It was going on even before his movie opened. That cover (was it Time?) with the headline, worlds best actor or whatever, was such obvious Oscar bating that it makes me a bit nauseous! I think that not only Hugh, but Denzel also gave a better performance than DDL, and Lincoln was a fairly boring movie. I enjoyed Sally Field's performance better than DDL's. I also liked Tommy Lee Jones though it was a smallish part. It was a good movie, but there were painfully slow sections. To me it's considered so highly only because of the names involved, not due to merit. And I'm a history buff so I've seen a lot of Lincoln & Civil War movies! The Oscars may at times be less than correct in their choices for whatever reasons but it's one of the award shows I still trust, though that trust has slipped in recent years. I'm not that familiar with the SAG track record but if it's actors voting for their peers I would think it was pretty fair. I've never been impressed by the Golden Globes. It always seemed like an excuse for Hollywood to party more than a quality awards show. I almost never watch it. I mainly watch the Tony's and the Academy Awards and since I started getting BBC America, the BAFTA's. It usually doesn't matter that much what goes on at these awards shows, except for hoping they'll be entertaining, because I never have a horse in the race, so to speak. It does matter to me this year. I just hope the movies and the performances are judged fairly.
Sue
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Post by jo on Jan 4, 2013 23:21:26 GMT -5
Whatever and however the awards bodies give their accolades I think we are great believers in Hugh Jackman's talent - and have been over the years ( since 1989 for me  ) -- so, while I hope he gets the profesional recognition, it won't lessen my belief in his talent, if those people choose to ignore his contribution to film in this movie! Plus if he believes this is his best work to-date and that it has given him immense artistic self-fulfilment, then that is good enough for me. But like TBFO - we hanged on - and were joyous to see Hugh rewarded so richly at the end! Keeping everything crossed at this point Jo |
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Post by klenotka on Jan 5, 2013 6:41:40 GMT -5
If anything the Oscar buzz alone and the role will hopefully help him to get better roles. He has Prisoners next which doesn ´t look like an easy role either.
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Post by birchie on Jan 5, 2013 10:53:00 GMT -5
Whatever and however the awards bodies give their accolades I think we are great believers in Hugh Jackman's talent - and have been over the years ( since 1989 for me ) -- so, while I hope he gets the profesional recognition, it won't lessen my belief in his talent, if those people choose to ignore his contribution to film in this movie! Plus if he believes this is his best work to-date and that it has given him immense artistic self-fulfilment, then that is good enough for me. But like TBFO - we hanged on - and were joyous to see Hugh rewarded so richly at the end! Keeping everything crossed at this point Jo Nothing will lessen my belief in Hugh!! I will be a fan forever!  The awards show shenanigans only serve to lessen my belief in awards shows!!  I agree that this is the best thing he's ever done! Fingers & toes firmly crossed here! Go Hugh! :-/ Sue |
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Post by jo on Jan 6, 2013 18:34:21 GMT -5
Les Mis/Hugh friend Nathaniel Rogers of FILM EXPERIENCE sums up some of the negativity that Les Miserables is suffering from which may affect its Oscar fight in this article on the chances of the contenders -- thefilmexperience.net/blog/2013/1/5/things-to-ponder-before-making-finally-final-oscar-nom-predi.htmlHere's the Les Miserables portion of the blog -- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Les Mis¨¦rables (OR... The Internet ¡Ù The Academy Pt. 2)After a week of railing at the world about the shitty treatment and weirdly stalker-like hatred that the musical has engendered (if you hate it so much why are you taking every chance you have to be close to it with your virtual mouth? You're like Javert with a Valjean bone. Let it go, Asshole!) I've calmed down. I mean, I've been so good I haven't even mentioned that grenade-throwing David Denby piece in the New Yorker which... well, Jeremy Smith already said it...  Whether or not one hate or loves the film -- it's roughly 50/50 among people I know and roughly 90/10 according to the internet and roughly 10/90 from Cinema Score -- guess who doesn't get to vote on the Oscars? The Internet! *ding ding ding* You are correct! At worst the hyperbolic Les Miz haters (who have decidedly outshouted the more tempered: 'sure the movie has flaws but I loved it!' fanbase) will shame a few voters away that might have been feeling more generous without the vitriol... but my guess is it also strengthens the resolve of some who love it into really barricading themselves in "Will you join in our crusade? Who will be strong and stand with me ♫" We won't know until the 10th whether Oscar has real passion for it. The keys will be how well it does in editing, directing and acting where it seems most vulnerable: Jackman is not truly locked (no one in Best Actor is beyond DDL given the super tight Best Actor field 5 men are still super strong for 4 slots) despite a passionate engaging performance. Less than 8 nominations would suggest that Team Javert has won and finally killed off saintly Jean Valjean '24601'. More than 10 would mean it's unkillable and still a threat to win the gold. The most frustrating thing for me in advance (and mark my words that this will happen!) is that even if it shows a big nomination total of 8+ the haters will pounce on every miss as evidence that the Academy agrees with them that it sucks. Expect lots of schadenfreude gloating -- and you know where -- if it misses any of the following: Picture, Director, Actor, Editing, or even Song. The gloating will happen even if it misses only one of those! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Can't wait for January 10 !!!!!!!!!!! Hoping for the best - and at least 10 nods ( according to Friend Nathaniel ) Jo |
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Post by jo on Jan 6, 2013 19:00:26 GMT -5
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Post by foxie on Jan 6, 2013 19:40:26 GMT -5
putting these bad reviews on is annoying we know it is wonderful and actually the best movie i ever saw as all my friends haVE SAID ALSO so lets wait and see what happens
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) -- so, while I hope he gets the profesional recognition, it won't lessen my belief in his talent, if those people choose to ignore his contribution to film in this movie! Plus if he believes this is his best work to-date and that it has given him immense artistic self-fulfilment, then that is good enough for me.
