THE GREATEST SHOWMAN : Awards Talk

[jo]

Since when did HUGH JACKMAN become a film director

Of the movies listed on Wells's nomination picks, THE GREATEST SHOWMAN seems to be the only one whose creative ownership is traced to the leading actor ( and original project proponent)!

Jo

[jo]

Jeffrey Wells of Hollywood Elsewhere discusses with Jeff Sneider of Tracking Board, both well-known movie press columnists, the potential Oscar contenders, based on Jeffrey Wells's OSCAR SPITBALL to-date.

In the list, THE GREATEST SHOWMAN appears at # 8.






The discussion is fairly long -- so, if you want to zero in on the ff :

*Start of Oscar predictions - at around 10'35"

*Discussions on GREATEST SHOWMAN - at around 23'40"


My audio is not very clear and I wished Wells spoke more directly into the mic or spoke more clearly ( like Sneider) but here's what I picked up ( some are really paraphrasing) --


Wells is impressed because of what he saw at CinemaCon -- big square musical, very poignant and entertaining, a film where people can have a great time, mostly what would be expected of musicals...or could even be the "tokenism" in the line-up. He says that at the moment, he doesn't know what the " arc" of the film yet as he has not seen it.

Sneider says that a few of his staffers saw the film ( probably from the test screening) and he said " they really liked it"...and thought " it was very good" ( although he says those staffers were the type who love musicals). He agrees that it could come in on the nominations list ( so long that it is not exactly like Les Mis ). Sneider says the competition for inclusion in the lineup could be WONDER, but at the moment GREATEST SHOWMAN seems to have the edge. He also says that it looks very good (presumably from the trailer?).

Sneider added that one of its potential excellent selling points could be the theme of acceptance of people who are different ( the freaks) and cites The Bearded Lady as particularly impressive and may even get a nod for Supporting Actress.

They also discuss how the FOX banner is flying for so many potential contenders. Sneider thinks that LOGAN was also an excellent FOX release ( and among his top 5 films) this year. And that it is a guessing game on which film FOX will make the big "spend" ( presumably referring to the Oscar campaign chest...although I don't see why FOX will not consider on making more than one bet!).

Sneider also suggests a few other films that could be considered as potentials.

The rest of the podcast is about their daily calling (discussing movies and their potential audience impact). Both seem to be very on-the-job, including their possible connections with the industry, unlike many film blogs which sound a little distant and involves much guesswork and empty speculations sometimes.


Jo

[jo]

Interesting comment from Jeff Sneider and Jeff Wells --

That contenders for Best Actor, compared to Best Actress, tend to be awarded the Oscar honor also as recognition of the previous body of work that is excellent.

They were implying that it is a longer route to Oscar glory for actors!

Notable exceptions are Adrien Brody, Jean Dujardin, Roberto Benigni, maybe Matthew McConnaughey ( I don't remember anything of his past movies that was deemed excellent before his Oscar-winning role)...on the other hand, there is Leonardo DiCaprio who was forever a possibility ( because of his body of work) but was only recently recognized for Oscar glory.


en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Academy_Award_for_Best_Actor


Jo

[jo]

Ok, here's some advance word on one of the competition -- a fairly secret film project called THE PHANTOM THREAD (starring DDLewis) --

From Hollywood Elsewhere --

Phantom Kink

Just to sum up, on 8.7 Vulture‘s Kyle Buchanan posted something about Paul Thomas Anderson‘s Phantom Thread (Focus, 12.25) being perceived as an upscale 50 Shades of Grey. This echoed an item last February that said PTA’s screenplay is about Daniel Day Lewis’s designer character falling for one of his muse/models (played by Vicky Krieps?), and how she gets him hooked on drugs and how they fall into an intense BDSM relationship. Does anyone know anything more specific?

Err...


Jo

[jo]

[jo]

DDLewis and Gary Oldman ( Darkest Hour- about Churchill) will be the very mature actors with sterling acting reputations for this year's Oscar race -- but will their material appeal to the broader cross-section now of AMPAS voters?

Will the theme of human degradation that seems to be the subject of PHANTOM THREAD ( ala Requiem for A Dream, even Last Tango in Paris...or maybe something like Fifty-One Shades of Grey) appeal to the artistic instincts, presumably for an acting performance? It is ironic that on Christmas Day, DDLewis's PHANTOM THREAD and HJackman's GREATEST SHOWMAN will face each other at the box office! On the surface, it seems they couldn't be more distinctive from each other (as holiday movies). On the other hand, the last week of December is also the time for last-minute Oscar baits to catch the deadline. Although given the report that PHANTOM THREAD ( which is directed by auteur P.T.Anderson) is actually in post-production now, it seems it may have enough time to complete the movie sooner. Why it should place itself directly across SHOWMAN for its release on Christmas Day (when December 25 is not even a regular release day during the week) sounds like counter-programming never seen before Why not the regular release day ( which falls on a Friday, in this case December 22)?

Darkest Hour can also be competing with Dunkirk as set against the background of World War II - which one will impress more? Will the setting of this period piece attract the young demos? Dunkirk does not highlight any particularly impressive individual acting performance. While on the other hand it seems Darkest Hour is simply a platform to show off the Oldman talent and the film's makeup skills?

Will the theme and subject be key to getting one of those nominations for acting honors? What will be the societal mood when the Academy chooses its nominees for eventual Oscar glory?


Of course, at this point, this is all speculative. Let's hope THE GREATEST SHOWMAN meets artistic expectations, apart from the commercial play angle.



It looks like quite a variety of film fare will be on offer for the AMPAS vote!







Jo

[carouselkathy]

Don't count out GOOD TIME with Robert Pattinson. Critics are going crazy about this film. Pattinson is being compared to DeNiro.

[carouselkathy]

LOGAN isn't on the list?

[jo]

Jeffrey Wells's revised list ( Woody Allen's movie now included) --






Two movies are opening on December 22 while 3 more are opening on December 25!

The AMPAS voters are going to get cross-eyed from too much big-screen watching

Focus Features is releasing 2 movies on Christmas Day ( Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour)

Hey, Director Jackman's movie clings to the 8th spot



Jo

[jo]

Another one of the movie press, Jeff Sneider of Tracking Board ( who was in the video discussions with Hollywood Elsewhere's Jeffrey Wells), is putting out his initial forecast of the movies which may be Oscar-worthy --

He calls it his OSCAR MAP --






www.tracking-board.com/the-oscar-map-1-will-netflix-land-its-first-best-picture-nod-with-mudbound-the-most-diverse-film-in-the-awards-race/


Among those being viewed as a possible Best Picture nominee is THE GREATEST SHOWMAN ( despite a note of cynicism by Sneider ) --

8. THE GREATEST SHOWMAN (20th Century Fox, Dec. 25) – I’ll admit, it’s hard for me to imagine a Best Picture nominee co-starring Zac Efron and Zendaya, but I’ve spoken to two people who caught a test screening of this film, and both came away impressed with the musical. And let’s face it, that is the magic word. Hollywood loves musicals — the Academy nominated the awful Les Miserables, for crying out loud! — and you know what else Hollywood loves? Hugh Jackman! As much as I’d rather predict a Best Picture nomination for Logan, which remains one of the best films I’ve seen all year, even I don’t have the guts to go that far. Besides The Disaster Artist, this P.T. Barnum biopic is this year’s “the wonder of showbiz” movie, and besides musicals, there’s nothing Hollywood loves more than those. See Best Picture winners The Artist and Argo for proof.

Check out the rest from the link for details --

1.The Papers
2.Mudbound
3.Dunkirk
4.Call Me By Your Name
5.Battle of the Sexes
6.Big Sick
7.Roman Israel, Esq.

8.The Greatest Showman

9.The Florida Project
10.Star Wars : The Last Jedi

[jo]

One of the top Oscar baits once called THE PAPERS has been retitled THE POST ( with reference to The Washington Post whose president Katherine Graham and editor Ben Bradlee will be the main characters in the movie).

THE GREATEST SHOWMAN also had some title editing. It used to be known as THE GREATEST SHOWMAN ON EARTH ( obviously to harken memories of an Oscar winner from a very long time ago -- The Greatest Show on Earth!).


Jo

[jo]

Kris Tapley ( now with Variety) writes about potential Oscar-baits for 2017.

variety.com/2017/film/in-contention/midway-oscars-forecast-major-studios-aim-for-gold-with-spectacle-and-zeitgeist-1202479822/

Excerpts --

IN CONTENTION

If the upcoming slate of indie Oscar hopefuls promises to be packed with the kind of risky mid-budgeted visions corporate cultures aren’t often eager to back, then the major studios are teeing up exactly what they’re capable of when they throw money at the right talent. Bold genre filmmaking and superhero yarns with actual meat on their bones dot the landscape, while a few of-the-moment dramas and comedies aim to get their licks in as well.


Twentieth Century Fox has a trio of prestige plays in store. For the holidays, Hugh Jackman stars as P.T. Barnum in Michael Gracey’s “The Greatest Showman,” though that could register more as a family film than an awards juggernaut. Meanwhile, Kenneth Branagh aims to dust off an Agatha Christie classic with the star-studded “Murder on the Orient Express.” But if ever there was a project that, sight unseen, felt destined for gold baubles, it has to be Steven Spielberg’s Pentagon Papers drama “The Papers,” starring Tom Hanks and Meryl Streep. A movie that will no doubt capture the zeitgeist with a portrait of the inherent need for a dedicated and judicious fourth estate will be formidable.



The Century City studio also has the most compelling case among the genre players: Matt Reeves’ “War for the Planet of the Apes,” which caps off that rare breed, a trilogy that bests itself with every new installment. More of a heart-wrenching drama than an actioner geared toward selling concessions, it’s a stunning accomplishment and one of the best films of the year. Andy Serkis will likely stir calls for Oscar attention yet again with his performance-capture work, and frankly Steve Zahn deserves to be there with him, in the supporting conversation. But while all of that is admittedly an uphill climb, fingers crossed that, at minimum, the Academy finally recognizes the groundbreaking visual effects of this series.



Fox is also working with Palestinian auteur Hany Abu-Assad (“The Mountain Between Us,” with Idris Elba and Kate Winslet), and sports a handful of animated hopefuls with DreamWorks’ “Boss Baby” and “Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie,” and Blue Sky’s “Ferdinand.” It’s quite the diverse portfolio. Though it will be interesting to see what kind of conversation the studio can rekindle around James Mangold’s “Logan,” which hit theaters less than a week after the 89th Oscars rolled up the red carpet. The gritty neo-Western remains one of the year’s best, with a touching Patrick Stewart performance that deserves serious consideration. Can Academy members give the movie a fair shake, or is the stigma still too great (“The Dark Knight” excepted)?

Speaking of comic book adaptations, some have already speculated about the Oscar chances of Patty Jenkins’ “Wonder Woman,” a rally cry for female filmmakers that won over the critics and set the box office on fire. It’s a tall order, but a commitment worth making; the wheels are already in motion at Warner Bros. to try and bring it back around during the season. But it may ultimately be relegated to the crafts categories, along with the film’s DC stable partner “Justice League,” which lands in the fall. Ditto Marvel’s “Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 2” and “Thor: Ragnarok” (at Disney), and the lovable “Spider-Man: Homecoming” (at Sony)...

The rest of the potential awards-getter are discussed in the article. Please check out the link.

Re his view of the chances of THE GREATEST SHOWMAN -- hope it performs like THE SOUND OF MUSIC, which was a box office triumph initially but gathered enough steam and popular appeal ...and won OSCAR BEST PICTURE that season!


Jo

[jo]

Sometimes, the campaign can also be generated by social media citations --

From a Hollywood-based journalist who has covered the Oscars for the last 25 years :

[jo]

At this point, where most of the predicted films have not been released, Jeffrey Wells calls the forecasts by " the-know- it-alls" to be no more than "know-nothing-at-all" predictions


He posts his predictions, with odds, but it seems these are reluctanctly pressed on him by the so-called other experts.

www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/


From the link, the predictions from GoldDerby are also indicated.


www.goldderby.com/odds/combined-odds/oscars-nominations-2018/


www.goldderby.com/awardshows/expert-predictions/oscars-nominations-2018/sort/recent/


These film bloggers seem to have created a mini-industry of OSCAR-predicting for the second half of a year

Predictions seem mostly based on past history of key players ( director/actor/other creatives/other production values), AMPAS biases re genres and acting types, flavor-of-the-month issues, and maybe even early studio play on what they are pushing for awards glory... and not necessarily based on early predictors such as script quality/test screenings/early publicity material such as trailers

To me, assigning odds at this point only serves to create a false impression of early knowledge of the actual movie itself.

Jo

[jo]

Maybe after Venice, Toronto, Telluride and November/December when many of the top predictions will have been seen? Btw, three movies are going to be released on Christmas Day (Showman/Darkest Hour with Oldman/Phantom Thread with DDlewis, although there is some confusion on when Darkest Hour will be released; Box Office Mojo has its release on Nov 22 instead) while The Post (Spielberg) will be released on December 22, together with Downsizing. Other mentionables are slated in the latter part of November!


www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/?view=bydate&release=theatrical&yr=2017

[jo]

thefilmexperience.net/blog/2017/8/29/first-poster-for-the-greatest-showman.html


Negative buzz --

According to the folks at Awards Watch, it has screened abysmally and they are now trying to fix it in post. They were keen on the movie in their original predictions, but once the reports started to rush in they dropped it like a hot potato. Hugh Jackman still in for a Globe Comedy/Musical nom, but that's about it.

August 29, 2017 | Carmen Sandiego

Conflicting reports on the test screening results.

If there is some truth to the above feedback. hope any negative elements can be resolved during post production.

[jo]

It looks like FOX may launch a multi-prong approach to landing Oscar nominations, in this case Peter Chernin talks about the plans for PLANET/APES for which he was an original series producer :

deadline.com/2017/08/oscars-fox-best-picture-war-for-the-planet-of-the-apes-1202158378/


Further down --

Excerpts:

It looks like big Fox is going to be very busy this season, not only with Apes but also upcoming potential contenders (in one category or another) Murder On The Orient Express, Steven Spielberg’s The Post, The Mountain Between Us and The Greatest Showman (Chernin also has a producer credit on the latter two), in addition to the acclaimed March release Logan which also serves as sort of a poignant elegy for the previous era of X-Men movies and features award-worthy supporting work from Patrick Stewart.

[jo]

variety.com/2017/film/news/studios-oscar-movies-1202548001/

Studios Eye Return to Oscar Glory With a Raft of Big, Auteur-Driven Movies

Brent Lang
Senior Film and Media Editor
@brentalang



September 6, 2017 | 10:15AM PT

Alexander Payne’s “Downsizing” debuted to rapturous reviews at the Venice Film Festival last week, a boost as it enters awards season. It could also mean that Paramount, the studio behind Payne’s latest film, has a chance to snag the best picture Oscar. If “Downsizing” pulls off that feat, it would be the first time a major studio has claimed Hollywood’s top movie prize since Warner Bros. nabbed a gold statue for 2012’s “Argo.”


Over the past decade, only one other major studio release has won the top prize, 2006’s “The Departed,” another Warner Bros. production. Recent victors such as “Moonlight,” “Spotlight” and “12 Years a Slave” have emerged from upstart indie distributors like A24 and Open Road, or have been the product of major studio specialty labels such as Fox Searchlight. There have been major studio releases nominated for best picture, such as last year’s Paramount drama “Fences” or 2015’s “The Revenant” (Fox), but none has taken the trophy.



“Downsizing” is not the only big studio film in pursuit of gold statues. Fox, Sony, Warner Bros. and Universal have outsize chances of cracking into major categories with the likes of “The Greatest Showman,” “All the Money in the World,” “Dunkirk,” “The Post” and “Get Out.” In addition to “Downsizing,” Paramount will likely mount campaigns for “Mother!,” a Darren Aronofsky horror thriller with Jennifer Lawrence, and “Suburbicon,” a George Clooney-directed crime tale. All three Paramount films will screen at this week’s Toronto International Film Festival, where they will try to generate buzz heading into a competitive awards season.


Part of the reason major studios haven’t been stocking up on metallic plaudits in recent years is that they’ve largely ceded the kind of adult dramas that dominate awards season to independent players as they’ve obsessed on spinning big-budget superhero and sci-fi fantasy tales. Some, like “Wonder Woman” and “Logan,” might also score awards consideration.


If the majors find themselves with a wealth of big contenders, expect an arms race of Oscar campaigning, fueled by massive spending on billboards, receptions, television spots and for-your-consideration ads. One of the biggest costs is ferrying stars to and from events: Rides on private jets can set companies back $100,000 a pop. Insiders estimate that in the past, major studios have spent more than $20 million on a single awards campaign. That dwarfs the spending of independent distributors, which shell out between a few hundred thousand dollars to $4 million to hawk their wares.

Of course the definition of an indie film has changed dramatically. Amazon and Netflix have made a splash in recent years, buying up films and earning awards for the likes of “Manchester by the Sea” and “The White Helmets.” Both companies will be back in the thick of awards season — Amazon is fielding Todd Haynes’ “Wonderstruck” and Woody Allen’s “Wonder Wheel,” while Netflix will counter with “Mudbound,” a look at racism in the South that was a critical smash at Sundance. These companies are new media giants that rival the clout and spending ability of the Time Warners and Disneys of the world.



It’s unclear how many of this year’s awards hopefuls will blossom into true contenders. Venice and the Telluride Film Festival have helped narrow the field, and Toronto will further clarify the picture. Sony will debut “Roman J. Israel, Esq.” at the gathering, and insiders believe that the Denzel Washington legal thriller could be a contender. This year’s festival will also offer Warner Bros. an opportunity to remind Oscar voters how much they liked “Dunkirk,” the Christopher Nolan World War II epic that earned strong reviews when it bowed in the summer. The studio will host a special conversation and screening with the director. Many other major studio candidates, from Steven Spielberg’s “The Post” to Ridley Scott’s “All the Money in the World,” won’t be ready to be screened until at least November. At that point, it should be clear who has the goods to go home a winner on Oscar night.

Interesting comment about how much major studios are prepared to spend on their Oscar campaigns!

*Fox is having a fairly profitable year, so those FOX studio movies which turned out to be box office hits as well ( such as LOGAN) would be easier to rationalize budget-speaking. On the other hand, how does a studio revive the interest in movies that were shown much earlier during the year? Studios can arrange special limited period re-screenings ( as they did with THE DRAK KNIGHT).

*THE GREATEST SHOWMAN probably has a medium-sized production and marketing budget? Can its Oscar campaign be launched at the same time as the promotional activities at the time of its release are underway, so it will not need a full budget simply for Oscar campaigning purposes ?

if both LOGAN and THE GREATEST SHOWMAN both become likely Oscar contenders, that would be quite rare having two movies led by the same big-marquee-name actor in the fray!


Jo

[jo]

In all this talk about the forthcoming OSCAR SEASON on film blog sites and the movie press, I keep running into the comment/observation ( including the feedback boards) that "OSCAR Loves MUSICALS"!


Here's a fairly complete list from MSN --

www.msn.com/en-gb/sport/other/the-best-musicals-nominated-for-oscars/ss-AAm9T9C


Hmm... looks like the observation that OSCAR Loves MUSICALS is based on many pieces of evidence ( although in some cases on the list, the movie was nominated only for Best Song)...but there is enough proof for us to be hopeful


I guess we well just have to cross our fingers that THE GREATEST SHOWMAN delivers an excellent movie and exceptional performances!

PS: Hopefully, the Oscar preference does not mistakenly settle on the live-action BEAUTY AND THE BEAST - lol! No offense meant to BATB ... But they already had their chance with the animated version which landed among the 5 Oscar nominees for Best Picture for that year.


Jo

[jo]

Down Memory Lane ( courtesy of WIKI) --

The Greatest Show on Earth

Budget
$4 million[1]
Box office
$36 million[1]


The Greatest Show on Earth is a 1952 American drama film produced and directed by Cecil B. DeMille,[2] shot in Technicolor, and released by Paramount Pictures. Set in the Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey Circus, the film stars Betty Hutton and Cornel Wilde as trapeze artists competing for the center ring, and Charlton Heston as the circus manager running the show. James Stewart also stars in a supporting role as a mysterious clown who never removes his make-up, even between shows, while Dorothy Lamour and Gloria Grahame play supporting roles.

In addition to the film actors, the real Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey's Circus' 1951 troupe appears in the film, with its complement of 1400 people, hundreds of animals, and 60 carloads of equipment and tents. The actors learned their respective circus roles and participated in the acts. The film's storyline is supported by lavish production values, actual circus acts, and documentary, behind-the-rings looks at the massive logistics effort which made big top circuses possible.


The film won two Academy Awards for Best Picture and Best Story, and was nominated for Best Costume Design, Best Director, and Best Film Editing. It also won Golden Globe Awards for Best Cinematography, Best Director, and Best Motion Picture – Drama.

It looks like OSCAR loves not only MUSICALS but also the CIRCUS!


Will history repeat itself

Hope so


Jo

[jo]

That same year when The Greatest Show on Earth won the Oscar --

An interesting footnote :


SINGIN' IN THE RAIN was released the same year and all it got was a nomination for Best Supporting Actress!

But now, many consider it as "the best movie musical ever made!"


en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singin%27_in_the_Rain

The film was only a modest hit when first released. Donald O'Connor won the Golden Globe Award for Best Actor – Motion Picture Musical or Comedy, and Betty Comden and Adolph Green won the Writers Guild of America Award for their screenplay, while Jean Hagen was nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress. But it has since been accorded legendary status by contemporary critics, and is frequently regarded as the best movie musical ever made,[3] and the best film ever made in the "Freed Unit" at Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer. It topped the AFI's Greatest Movie Musicals list and is ranked as the fifth-greatest American motion picture of all time in its updated list of the greatest American films in 2007.

[jo]

At this point, VARIETY ( thru Awards Editor Kris Tapley) surveys the landscape for the Oscar race.

The Greatest Showman is considered one of the major hopefuls which have not been seen but could offer strong competition to those already released.

variety.com/2017/film/in-contention/are-you-ready-for-the-most-exciting-oscar-race-in-years-1202560228/

[jo]

Playlist ( via Gregory Ellwood) puts Hugh Jackman among frontrunners for BEST ACTOR for THE GREATEST SHOWMAN, but the movie itself is considered second tier behind the frontrunners for BEST PICTURE.


theplaylist.net/2018-best-actor-oscars-predictions-20170628/

theplaylist.net/2018-best-picture-oscars-predictions-20170628/




Keala Settle is a surprise among the frontrunners for Best Supporting Actress while Michelle Willliams is a longshot possibility for THE GREATEST SHOWMAN --


theplaylist.net/2018-best-supporting-actress-oscars-predictions-20170628/

[mamaleh]

I can see why Keala's name is being bandied about for Supporting. She does stand out in the trailer, vocally and visually.

Ellen

[jo]

Hope the buzz about Keala will get the Broadway community fully supporting this musical from Hollywood!


Jo