THE GREATEST SHOWMAN : Box Office

[jo]

It seems too early to look at potential box office performance of THE GREATEST SHOWMAN, but there are early forecasts, hence this new thread.


With the onset of September come the speculations for commercial potential of the fall season movies, since the past summer box office performance has been disappointing. Tracking Board ( via Edward Douglas, formerly of ComingSoon.net) puts up estimated box office potential during the domestic run of certain movies with some level of expected success at the box office.

www.tracking-board.com/the-top-15-movies-opening-this-fall-should-make-up-for-this-summers-weak-box-office/


As expected, this list include mostly blockbusters, with hardly any Oscar baits ( it seems only SHOWMAN has potential for Oscar glory among the list?). Star Wars expectedly leads the pack...but GREATEST SHOWMAN lands on # 11 --

11. The Greatest Showman (20th Century Fox – Dec. 25) – $80 million

Still an unknown in terms of how it will fare in terms of awards, but this one seems like a slam dunk to release over the holidays when many people are on vacation from work and looking for movies to go see. Jackman did quite well for himself with Universal’s Les Miserables (also released over Christmas) and with Logan earlier this year, so this will be a good test to see him play another character — the great PT Barnum.

GREATEST SHOWMAN will face very stiff competition because 3 potential blockbusters will be released within 10 days of its release. Star Wars ( #1 on the list) will be released on December 15. Pitch Perfect ( # 6) and Jumanji ( # 7 ) will be released on December 22 and Dec 20, respectively, while Showman ( # 11) will open on December 25.

But let's hope it crosses over $ 100 million during its domestic run!

Jo

[jo]

Presumably what could boost its box office numbers would be any nominations/wins with major awards bodies --

moviemarker.co.uk/awards-season-calendar-2017-2018/


GOLDEN GLOBES
*Nominations - December 11, 2017
*Winners - January 7, 2017

The Golden Globes has separate categories between DRAMA and COMEDY/MUSICAL


SAG ( Screen Actors Guild, which constitutes the largest voting bloc at the AMPAS)
*Nominations - December 13, 2017
*Winners - January 21, 2018


ACADEMY AWARDS ( AMPAS - OSCAR)
*Nominations - January 23, 2018
*Winners - March 4, 2018


Jo

[carouselkathy]

Maybe this is a stupid question, but are nominations usually announced before the release dates? I don't recall the Les Mis nominations coming out before the Christmas Day release. Is my memory failing me?

[hughmanity]

Yeah, I dont get this.  How can it be nominated before its release?  Also, I thought it was going to be released wide on Christmas day, but according to RT, it is a limited release.  My other concern is that 81% of RT respondents said they are interested in the film.  That's a percentage I wish were higher.

Sept 1, 2017 10:47:18 GMT -5 carouselkathy said:

Maybe this is a stupid question, but are nominations usually announced before the release dates? I don't recall the Les Mis nominations coming out before the Christmas Day release. Is my memory failing me?

[jo]

It is going on WIDE RELEASE on CHRISTMAS DAY ( December 25, 2017) --

*Promotional material of THE GREATEST SHOWMAN all indicate a Christmas Day release -- the official trailer, the official poster, internet publicity announcements.







*IMDB already has release dates for various countries --


www.imdb.com/title/tt1485796/releaseinfo?ref_=tt_dt_dt

USA has a December 25 schedule
Hongkong gets it on December 21
Sweden also gets a December 25 release
Australia gets it on December 26/UK on January 1
All the rest ( those known so far) posted on IMDB follow.

It would be awkward for other countries to get it on wide release ahead or on the same date as the USA ( which would only get limited release - not happening )


*Box Office Mojo ( most reliable when it comes to information on releases) confirms that:

www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/?view=bydate&release=all&date=2017-12-01&showweeks=5&p=.htm

It is PHANTOM THREAD ( PT Anderson movie with DDLewis) which is going on LIMITED release on the same date ( December 25).



One of my main reservations is when it will get a release date in China. The current program approved by China limits releases from other countries ( mostly Hollywood movies) to only about less than 40 movies a year. Since GREATEST SHOWMAN is going to be released on December 25, 2018, it may not qualify for 2017 ( it is likely that STAR WARS will still be screening in China on that date). Hopefully, GREATEST SHOWMAN will get a 2018 release date in China. China has awakened to musicals now ( if I recall right, BEAUTY AND THE BEAST had box office receipts of $ 86 million while La La Land had $ 36 million)... Btw, the arrangement with China is currently on protracted renegotiations now -- hopefully, with an expanded number and with better revenue-sharing ratios.

Japan is also usually on a delayed release basis for movies. But it did release Les Miserables at the same time as all the major markets ( because the distributor is a big fan of the musical). For Les Miserables, it recorded $ 62 million ... and for Beauty and the Beast $ 111 million but on a delayed basis, while La La Land recorded $ 38 million also on a delayed basis). The other major market would be the UK which gets the movie on January 1.

One other point -- GREATEST SHOWMAN is not considered a blockbuster movie that automatically gets a day/date release worldwide. That is why it is expected ( or hoped) to get massive publicity before its release. BEAUTY AND THE BEAST was recognized as potential blockbuster early on ( and proved it with the highest worldwide box office receipts for any movie to-date).

[hughmanity]

Then I don't know what's up with RT!  Weird:

[jo]

Sept 1, 2017 10:47:18 GMT -5 carouselkathy said:

Maybe this is a stupid question, but are nominations usually announced before the release dates? I don't recall the Les Mis nominations coming out before the Christmas Day release. Is my memory failing me?

Les Miserables had an earlier worldwide premiere in London, ahead of the wide release on Christmas Day.

There were special screenings ( NYC and LA, if I recall right) with Q&A for the awards community from my recollections. Further screenings with Q&A were held but after the Christmas Day release. Usually not available to the general public.



Re GREATEST SHOWMAN --

The usual practice is to send out screener copies/screenplays ahead of award bodies nomination dates ( such as Golden Globes/SAG) to concerned members of the awards community ( maybe the nominating committees). Or special screenings could be held for them. This is of course done on a restricted basis so there is no leakage of the movie ahead of the wide release. The disadvantage with screeners is that they can only be viewed via TV or a computer, which would not give the same impact as a big screen. THE GREATEST SHOWMAN is a spectacle type and would benefit with a big screen showing -- maybe they could hold special screenings for the awards community in places like NYC or LA?

The NYC premiere ( presumably also the world premiere) is scheduled on December 18, but STRICTLY on an invite-basis.


THE GREATEST SHOWMAN will not have a problem completing the movie on time for all those schedules needed for the awards community. It has been on post-production for sometime now. Les Miserables completed principal photography ( aka filming) only at end-June 2012 and Tom Hooper said he hardly slept during the subsequent period so as to meet the deadlines for the world premiere/the awards community deadlines/worldwide release, aggravated by the fact that it is a spectacle type movie as well as being a musical.

The awards-bait movies which filmed late will have some difficulties but will likely be able to meet the target deadlines for awards honors. Some will already screen at Venice, Toronto, and Telluride Film Festivals, though.


It seems that THE GREATEST SHOWMAN has especially targeted a Christmas Day release date because it wanted to take advantage of the appeal of its movie for a commercial play angle ( $$$$). The cinematic vision of a family-friendly movie suited the Christmas Day/holiday release dates.

Sadly, it cannot be released on a day/date basis ( same date or week for all countries), unlike blockbusters which worldwide distributors chase.

[jo]

Sept 1, 2017 15:26:31 GMT -5 hughmanity said:

Then I don't know what's up with RT!  Weird:

View Attachment

Maybe it is just a typographical error? Or they confused it with the LIMITED release on Christmas Day - PHANTOM THREAD ( DDLewis movie)?

Although, since ROTTEN TOMATOES is owned by the ticket seller FANDANGO, it should really have access to accurate information.

Screens are contracted for way ahead of release date and it gets pretty competitive especially during holiday weekends or major holidays. The other reason for limited release is when a movie is not perceived as having immediate wide appeal and is released on a rolling basis depending on early and limited reception. Although movies that are not distributed by major studios ( mostly indies type) may opt to go this route for economics reasons.

I have a feeling that IMAX screens are all going to STAR WARS for the second half of December ... plus of course it could be a costly screening arrangement and are contracted only if the movie could benefit from such a type of screening and can enhance the box office appeal to put it on net revenue contributor basis.

[carouselkathy]

Hopefully, there will be a lot of media ads, commercial, trailers, etc. leading up to the Christmas Day release.

[jo]

Sept 1, 2017 16:23:10 GMT -5 carouselkathy said:

Hopefully, there will be a lot of media ads, commercial, trailers, etc. leading up to the Christmas Day release.

That would depend on the publicity budget assigned by FOX for this movie. Sadly, it is not (yet) considered as a potential blockbuster like LOGAN for which a great amount of promotions budget was expended ( but all justified now, because of its $ 616 million worldwide receipts). From what I have read, some promotions budget could be even as high as the total production budget itself ( for blockbusters) or even higher. It could be much lower if the movie is not expected to be that commercially-generous at the box office.

I hope there are no "politically-correct" issues that crop up when the movie is being publicized. Sometimes, that can get out of hand ( such as in the case of PAN - where the casting of Tiger Lily became a point of contention).

We also know that the movie musicals genre is not exactly guaranteed at the box office! Also, while it was never intended as to timing of releases, some fanboys are being cynical in saying that this next movie by Hugh Jackman is what he gave up the XMen franchise for! On the other hand, the movie has a family-friendly appeal and it could attract large three-generational viewing parties! Also, I have yet to read of other countries which are generally averse to movie musicals. It is sad that in America, what was once a genre that was a favorite ( Remember the golden age of movie musicals? And the time in the 1950/1960's when big musicals attracted not just big box office but also awards glory) now has to justify itself at the box office. Hope THE GREATEST SHOWMAN proves to be a film musical that will help restore in a big way the same regard movie musicals had in the past! A few have already led the way -- Chicago, Les Miserables, even Mamma Mia!, La La Land and Beauty and the Beast in the more recent past.

Hugh (and whoever will come along) will have a very busy time promoting the movie via media junkets or ( if within their budget) with premieres in select countries? We probably can also expect more incisive print interviews or coverage in print media on details about the movie? TV ads will have to be what's within their promotional budget.

One other aspect -- if FOX perceives that the movie could be an excellent awards candidate, maybe their promotional budget can already incorporate some of the publicity requirements? I remember that in the case of Les Miserables, the man in charge of the awards campaign was supposedly given a $ 10 million budget by UNIVERSAL at that time.

Jo

[jo]

Good news from China!

chinafilminsider.com/hfc-china-investment-approach/?utm_source=China+Film+Insider+Newsletter+Update&utm_campaign=05c523f45c-Daily_Newsletter_2017_September+4&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_9a066b9dc2-05c523f45c-226845293

Chinese Companies’ New Hollywood Approach

According to a recent announcement from China’s Bona Film Group, the company will invest in upcoming American biographical musical drama film ‘The Greatest Showman’, which is produced by Twentieth Century Fox and stars Hugh Jackman. Meanwhile, Chinese firm Starlight Culture Entertainment Group has just launched a $100 million fund for Hollywood filmmakers to develop films. With China’s crackdown on investment into Hollywood, it seems that investing in foreign films and filmmakers instead of production studios is becoming a new trend. Read more on yiqipaidianying

Surely that means that a release in China is guaranteed?

The approach of the film being a co-production by being a major investor in the production company ( if I understand it correctly) will classify it as a domestic production, which means it should not fall under the quota system for Hollywood films.


Jo

[jo]

Rough translation of the original report mentioned in the above article --

Bona Pictures, Starlight culture investment in Hollywood, monolithic cooperation highlights cost-effective

Recently, Bona Pictures announced the investment "wolf tert" Hugh Jackman's new work "the king of the circus", the film also recently released the world's first poster. As early as the Cannes International Film Festival, Bona Pictures announced the contribution of 80 million US dollars to vote in the main cast Roland Emmerich's "Midway".
In the case of




It is noteworthy that the two films are produced by the 20th century Fox film company, and in November 2015, Bona Pictures to Hollywood's well-known entertainment company TSG invested 235 million US dollars, for the 20th century Fox produced 6 Department of commercial large investment.

In the case of
From the time to pack six works of investment to now monolithic cooperation, Bona Pictures of the "sea" course seems to be able to glimpse of China's capital investment in Hollywood changes.
In the case of
Although this year Bona Film announced the return of domestic A shares, but during the US market, Bona Pictures accumulated a number of reliable film and television resources. Last year, Bona Pictures introduced eight imported films, the cumulative box office more than 2 billion, and in the watercress were also points to 7.3 points.

In the case of
In March 2015, Bona Pictures joined Hollywood studio8 and Sony Pictures invested in Lee's "Billy Lynn's midfield battle." Although the introduction of the mainland last year, although the box office results are not prominent, but because the film 4k + 3D +120 frames of the film system or caused a very enthusiastic discussion.

So, it seems their investment vehicle is through TSG.

Per IMDB Page on THE GREATEST SHOWMAN --

Production Companies

Chernin Entertainment
TSG Entertainment
Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation

Also, per Wikipedia --

TSG Entertainment Finance LLC

Industry
Motion pictures

Founded
2012
Headquarters
New York City, New York

Parent
The Seelig Group
Bona Film Group
Magnetar Capital

Hopefully, all of this means that THE GREATEST SHOWMAN is considered a co-production between Hollywood and the Chinese outfit and qualifies as a domestic release in China?


It is not just the potential release guarantee...but hopefully the local partner will be very active in promoting the movie in China. Since this is a musical and it is partly about the circus ( Chinese acrobats/precision skill-oriented peformers are very impressive performers in circuses or circus-like shows), hopefully the movie will get great results from the Chinese market!


Jo

[mamaleh]

The now likely prospect of a release in China is exciting news! Really hope it happens.

Ellen

[jo]

Variety reports on the industry's assessment of the 2017 box office. The disappointing results versus 2016 may be partly offset by the blockbuster performance of STAR WARS and potential strong yearend finish for JUMANJI, THE GREATEST SHOWMAN, and PITCH PERFECT 3.

variety.com/2017/film/news/2017-box-office-decline-star-wars-the-last-jedi-1202625385/


Excerpts --

“Star Wars: The Last Jedi” has been tracking for a $200 million opening on Dec. 15 to Dec. 17, which would be the fourth-highest domestic launch of all time, behind “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” at $248 million, 2015’s “Jurassic World” at $208.8 million, and 2012’s “The Avengers” at $207.4 million.

Other potentially strong end-of-the-year entries include Sony’s “Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle” and Fox’s Hugh Jackman musical “The Greatest Showman,” both opening on Dec. 20, and Universal’s “Pitch Perfect 3,” which launches two days later.

[jo]

Variey gives early forecast on box office expectations --

variety.com/2017/film/box-office/box-office-jumanji-welcome-to-the-jungle-1202627089/

Early tracking for Sony’s “Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle” indicates a six-day opening in the $40 million to $45 million range when it debuts on Dec. 20.

Definite awareness for the “Jumanji” reboot is around 50%, while 9% of moviegoers said it was their first choice to see over the weekend. “Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle” is opening five days after Disney-Lucasfilm’s “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” — which has been forecast to open in the $200 million range domestically.

“Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle” was the top Christmas holiday title among the early tracking numbers released Thursday. Universal’s comedy “Pitch Perfect 3,” which opens on Dec. 22, is projected for a four-day opening in the $30 million range.

Fox’s “The Greatest Showman,” starring Hugh Jackman as “Barnum and Bailey” founder P.T. Barnum, is tracking to post a solid six-day opening in the $20 million range following its Dec. 20 launch.

On the other hand, Screen Rant comes up with a slightly higher prediction for GREATEST SHOWMAN --

screenrant.com/jumanji-last-jedi-pitch-perfect-3-box-office/

Among other films set to release over the Christmas holiday, Universal’s Pitch Perfect 3 is also looking very strong, with the tracking data suggesting a $30 million opening over four days for the Anna Kendrick-led musical-comedy. Fox may also have a musical holiday winner, as Hugh Jackman’s The Greatest Showman is tracking for $21 million

[jo]

Twitter exchange between two fairly well-known movie press : Variety's Justin Kroll and Tracking Board's Jeff Sneider --

Jeff Sneider‏
Verified account

@theinsneider
Dec 5

Variety says THE GREATEST SHOWMAN cost $84 million and that Fox will spend more than $100 million to market and release the film worldwide. If that's the case, it'll have to do about 75% of what LES MISERABLES did globally, which still ain't easy for an original musical...

*********************************

Justin Kroll‏
Verified account
@krolljvar


Replying to @theinsneider
I have no idea how to read what the international number will be but I feel this film has legs domestically even if JUMANJI beats it opening weekend. Films in that slot over the years have a tendency of staying in the top ten for awhile
2:27 PM - 5 Dec 2017


**********************************



Jeff Sneider‏
Verified account
@theinsneider
Dec 5

There's certainly nothing else like it in the marketplace. I've heard it's good, was just surprised to see how much they're spending on P&A, though I guess that's what it costs these days to open a big movie like that worldwide.



**********************************

Justin Kroll‏
Verified account

@krolljvar
Dec 5

Four Words to why they are spending that much. LAST JEDI and @therock When forces of nature like that collide, you unload everything you got in that piggy bank to compete

[jo]

Do you believe in the stars


Then let us not "Rewrite the stars"

[jo]

deadline.com/2017/12/last-jedi-dwayne-johnson-jumanji-zac-efron-greatest-showman-box-office-1202230784/

We have an early set of Wednesday estimates for those movies opening today. Early industry projections show Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle earning $7 million-$7.5 million Wednesday.


There are some who believe the Jake Kasdan-directed sequel could hit $9 million, but working against that today is that there aren’t as many kids off from school as last year, when Universal/Illumination’s Sing made $11M on its first Wednesday, leading to a five-day cume of $55.9M and six-day cume of $75.5M. Per ComScore, only 17% of K-12 schools are off (Jumanji‘s ideal demo in the elementary school and middle school grades), versus last year’s 38%.

Christmas Day on Monday is when the real action begins, so six-day estimates are rough; Christmas Eve on a Sunday puts a real sinker into the three-day figures. The industry is now thinking low-$50Ms for Jumanji by end of Christmas Day. Sneaks for Jumanji for Amazon Prime members grossed $2M on December 8, and that cash will be rolled into its total cume.


Twentieth Century Fox
20th Century Fox’s The Greatest Showman is between $3M-$3.7M, which will land it by Monday in the low-$20M range. Again, it’s a marathon, not a sprint for these movies as distribution executives assesses their fortunes by MLK weekend.

Audience LIKE results so far from RT and IMDB are very positive...so hopefully word-of-mouth works more effectively than the impact of early reviews.

Jo

[jo]

Deadline.com update --

20th Century Fox’s The Greatest Showman is between $2.7M-$3M today, which will still get it to the low-$20M range by the end of Christmas. Again, it’s a marathon, not a sprint for these movies as distribution executives assesses their fortunes by MLK weekend. While critics have been cruel at 48% Rotten, the original musical starring Hugh Jackman, Michelle Williams, Zac Efron and Zendaya proved to be a real crowd pleaser with the CinemaScore audience who gave it a solid A.

[jo]

Update from Deadline --

20th Century Fox/Chernin Ent’s The Greatest Showman is looking at $2.1M which brings its two day total to $4.6M

.

[jo]

I can't find the original tweet -- it said that it is likely going to be a hit in the UK because Amazon.UK is already out of stock of the CD and the songbook by Pasek and Paul ( music sheets). I verified it on the Amazon site and it's true. The UK is a big fan of movie and stage musicals! That is amazing since the UK is more known for its reputation in dramatic and classical theatre!

Of course, that is where the road to international stardom started with one Boy from Oz who likes playing American characters in musicals ( Oklahoma! and The Greatest Showman)

[jo]

Has the critics's negativity hurt the box office of THE GREATEST SHOWMAN ?


From Deadline.com

‘The Greatest Showman’ Review: Hugh Jackman Sings And Dances His Way Into Holiday Hearts In Lively Family Musical

Twentieth Century Fox

The Greatest Showman (3-day $8.2M/4-day: $12.1M/6-day: $16.7M): The film looks like it won’t even get close to $20M through six days, but with a 73% female audience, it’s in competition for women with Pitch Perfect 3 and Jumanji. The biggest plus for this film remains its solid A CinemaScore and Golden Globe nominations, which hopefully will give it a slow burn versus some of the other titles in the marketplace. Here’s the lowdown: There were many mixed signals from Fox when it came to marketing this P.T. Barnum musical. At CinemaCon, Fox served up plenty of exclusive footage and a dazzling live showstopper number from the film. Walking away from that presentation, it felt as though The Greatest Showman was Fox’s La La Land awards-season chip, with songs from that movie’s Oscar-winning songwriting team of Benj Pasek and Justin Paul. But as we journeyed deeper into awards season, Fox got cold feet, and we hear that’s because it knew critics weren’t going to warm to the pic (now at 50% Rotten).

As a result, Fox skipped doing any type of presentation for the movie at TIFF, like it did with the music from Hidden Figures a year ago. Word is that execs didn’t know if they were going to sell Greatest Showman as a family film or go after an older, Broadway audience. One of the final promo pushes included a live commercial for the film during Fox’s A Christmas Story Live (which was aimed at both families and Broadway lovers). Pete Hammond called Greatest Showman a four-quadrant family musical. Then after sitting out of many awards-season races, the movie suddenly picked up three Golden Globe noms for best musical/comedy, best actor Jackman and best song (“This Is Me”).

[mamaleh]

Could be potential filmgoers were scared off after reading some hysterical negative review. Hopefully good word of mouth will reverse the course.

Ellen

[jo]

The Last Jedi ( TLJ) has a 92% Rotten Tomatoes Critics rating but a 52% AUDIENCE LIKE rating.

The Greatest Showman has a reverse trend -- currently slowly improving to 51% but with an impressive 88% LIKE factor( also on an upward trend)!


Hope the box office will eventually reflect the upward trend, too, for GREATEST SHOWMAN eventually.


When I read the social media reactions -- with consistent and so much overwhelming regard for the movie's ability to entertain and please people -- it is regrettable that the critics's initial savage onslaught against it made it sound as if Scrooge wrote the reviews!

[jo]

Per Box Office Mojo -- final figures up to January 15, 2018 --

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $98,931,455 (49.7%)
Foreign: $100,023,698* (50.3%)

Worldwide: $198,955,153

* Updated up to January 14, 2018